Proactive adaptation to maintain sustainable growth for the coffee industry

Domestic coffee prices still have a positive trend

Export growth but limited supply

In the first 4 months of 2024, coffee export prices increased sharply by 67.5%, reaching 5,698 USD/ton, leading to an increase in export turnover of 51.1%, reaching 3.78 billion USD. By 2025, coffee exports will continue to maintain growth momentum, with Robusta coffee prices closing at 5,126 USD/ton recently. According to Mr. Le Duc Huy, Vice President of Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Association, the amount of coffee left in the people's hands is not much, people are selling sparingly. Limited supply is due to output not meeting demand, while complex geopolitical factors make customers only buy according to actual needs, not hoarding excess.

Despite the scarcity of supply, domestic coffee prices are still showing a positive trend for farmers. After a period of fluctuations, coffee prices are forecast to increase again, exceeding VND130,000/kg. Mr. Huy emphasized: "Coffee prices are moving in a positive direction for farmers. Vietnamese Robusta coffee is increasingly popular, especially in the Asian market." This shows the great potential of the Vietnamese coffee industry in meeting global demand, but also poses challenges in balancing supply and prices.

The quality of Vietnamese Robusta coffee is considered higher than that of other countries, contributing to the company's impressive export growth of 60-70% in the first 4 months of 2025. This growth comes from stable export volume and strong increase in export coffee prices. With this momentum, Mr. Huy predicts that the Vietnamese coffee industry can earn about 7 billion USD in 2025, surpassing the historical peak and affirming Vietnam's position on the world coffee map.

According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment , in the coffee industry, the EU is Vietnam's largest export market, but the EU's Anti-Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) has posed a major challenge. Accordingly, items such as coffee, rubber, wood, cocoa, etc. exported to the EU must have traceability and ensure that they are not related to deforestation after December 31, 2024. Violating businesses can be fined up to 4% of their revenue and excluded from the EU market. However, the EU has extended the implementation of the EUDR by 12 months, postponing the application date for large businesses to December 30, 2025 and small businesses to June 30, 2026, creating an opportunity for businesses to prepare.

Focus on replanting coffee trees

The Vietnamese coffee market is facing a great opportunity to surpass its historical peak with an export turnover forecast to reach 7 billion USD in 2025. The preference for Robusta coffee, strong export prices, and market diversification strategies are the main drivers. However, the coffee industry needs to proactively adapt to challenges such as limited supply, climate change, and EUDR regulations from the EU.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is also focusing on building a more sustainable coffee industry.

Accordingly, the Ministry requested localities not to expand the area, focusing on replanting. The Ministry determined that the current coffee area (about 709,000-710,000 hectares) has exceeded the planning, so further expansion is not encouraged. Instead, the orientation to 2030 is to adjust the scale down to 610,000-640,000 hectares, prioritizing replanting old coffee trees with high-quality, high-yielding varieties, and applying intensive farming techniques to improve efficiency.

Develop high-quality and specialty coffee with the goal of reaching 11,500 hectares of specialty coffee (2% of total area) by 2025, with a focus on regions such as the Central Highlands. This is to meet international market demand for sustainable and certified coffee, while increasing added value.

With drought and extreme weather affecting output (expected to decrease by 15-20% in the 2024-2025 crop year), the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment encourages research into drought-resistant coffee varieties, the application of advanced irrigation (such as drip irrigation), and regenerative agriculture models to reduce emissions and protect the environment.

To comply with the EU Anti-Deforestation Regulation, the Ministry has deployed a growing area data system in districts such as Krong Nang, Cu M'gar, Ea H'leo (Dak Lak), and Di Linh (Lam Dong), ensuring that 100% of the coffee area here is updated, has a transparent origin, and is not related to deforestation after December 31, 2020.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment is also promoting links between farmers, businesses, and markets, building a high-quality coffee production chain, associated with sustainable certification (such as 4C, UTZ, RFA). At the same time, it encourages deep processing, utilizing by-products, and developing coffee associated with tourism.

With a green growth orientation, the Ministry expects coffee export turnover to reach 6-7 billion USD by 2025, based on added value and expanding new markets such as China and the Middle East.

Do Huong

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/chu-dong-thich-ung-de-giu-tang-truong-ben-vung-cho-nganh-ca-phe-102250507175732322.htm