Disbursement progress accelerated
The year 2025 marks a clear shift in public investment, in the context of traditional drivers such as domestic consumption, domestic enterprise exports and credit recovering more slowly than expected. According to Vietnam Construction Securities Joint Stock Company (CSI), aggregate demand still needs a strong enough support force to maintain the growth rate and public investment is taking on that role.
The year 2025 marks a clear movement of public investment. Illustrative photo
According to Dragon Capital Securities Company (VDSC), the total public investment capital plan by October reached nearly VND1,060 trillion, an increase of more than VND185 trillion compared to the beginning of the year and allocated 97.7%, a level rarely seen in many years, which helps localities to be proactive and reduce the situation of backlog of disbursement at the end of the year.
VDSC also recorded that the disbursement value as of November 9 reached VND495.5 trillion, up 17.6% over the same period, despite some difficulties due to weather, material sources... This figure reflects the Government 's determination in removing obstacles and accelerating project progress.
According to MB Securities Company (MBS) and Thien Viet Securities Company (TVS), from the second quarter of 2025, the spillover effects of public investment to the manufacturing and construction industries will become clear. Key projects such as the North-South Expressway Phase 2, Long Thanh Airport, and beltways in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City will enter the peak construction phase, causing the demand for steel, cement, sand, and stone to increase sharply. TVS forecasts that the demand for construction materials in 2025 may increase by 18-22%.
Public investment also stimulates private investment. MBS believes that improved infrastructure, especially inter-regional connectivity, is helping to reduce logistics costs by 6-12%, creating conditions to attract FDI into the electronics, semiconductor, components, logistics and trade industries. These are two parallel driving forces to promote growth by 2025.
Public investment also helps reduce logistics costs when infrastructure is improved. Illustration photo
According to CSI, public investment disbursement also helps reduce pressure from exchange rate fluctuations and banking system liquidity. When credit increases rapidly, exchange rates are under pressure, strong cash flow from public investment projects helps stabilize aggregate demand and reduce the risk of capital shortage in the private sector.
However, VDSC believes that four groups of challenges still need to be addressed: Land legal issues, resettlement compensation valuation; lack of construction materials; limitations from local authorities after the merger; and the impact of extreme weather. Decision 2463/QD-TTg on flexible capital transfer between projects is one of the measures to optimize the efficiency of budget use.
Public investment - the driving force for maintaining growth
In the context of an uneven global economic recovery, many domestic industries are under pressure from exchange rates, capital costs and weak demand, public investment continues to play a key role in driving growth. According to TVS, public investment contributes directly to the construction and industrial sectors and indirectly supports the revenue of materials, logistics and technical services enterprises.
VDSC emphasizes the synergy between public investment and foreign direct investment (FDI): when transport infrastructure, seaports, airports and logistics are more complete, Vietnam increases its capacity to attract FDI projects, especially in high technology, electronic components and equipment. Logistics costs reduced by 6-12% are improving the competitiveness of enterprises, supporting the wave of production shifting to Vietnam.
Public investment also helps stabilize demand when credit increases sharply. Illustrative photo
CSI assessed that public investment also helps stabilize demand when credit increased sharply by 15% in 10 months and the banking system was under pressure on liquidity. When exchange rates fluctuate and monetary management policies have to balance many goals, public investment becomes the most stable channel to maintain cash flow, reducing the risk of slow progress in the private sector.
According to MBS, the steady progress of key projects also contributed to strengthening market sentiment during the period of financial volatility. This helped limit negative external impacts and maintain GDP growth at the end of the year.
In order for public investment to fully play its supporting role, VDSC and MBS recommend continuing to improve legal procedures, shorten approval time, enhance project management capacity and ensure material supply. The capital transfer under Decision 2463/QD-TTg is an important step to prioritize projects with good progress.
In the medium term, the reports in this section agree that public investment will continue to be one of the two main growth drivers in the 2025-2030 period, alongside FDI. As infrastructure is completed, production and transportation costs are reduced, and economic corridors are synchronously connected, Vietnam will consolidate its competitive advantage and macroeconomic stability in the global volatile cycle.
Source: https://baotintuc.vn/tai-chinh-ngan-hang/dau-tu-cong-2025-tro-thanh-tru-do-tang-truong-giua-nhieu-suc-ep-20251118200649726.htm
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