What is the driving force for GDP growth to reach 8.3%

Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong - Member of the Policy Advisory Council, Member of the Economic and Financial Committee of the National Assembly gave his opinion at the forum. *Photo: NLĐ*

Achievable goals

Sharing at the forum, Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong - Member of the Policy Advisory Council, Member of the Economic and Financial Committee of the National Assembly , assessed that the growth target of 8% this year, moving towards maintaining double-digit growth in the following years, is the inevitable path if Vietnam wants to become a high-income country and overcome the middle-income trap.

To achieve the set goals, Prof. Dr. Hoang Van Cuong said that fiscal and monetary policies must be coordinated flexibly and proactively, minimizing the impact of external fluctuations. Currently, public debt is about 34% of GDP, still at a safe level. Inflation is not too worrying if we control cash flow and prices well.

However, the biggest challenge remains exchange rate stability. Although the USD has weakened thanks to the Fed's interest rate cut, pressure remains due to increased import demand at the end of the year to serve the shopping season, while exports to the US are at risk of falling due to the reciprocal tax policy. Therefore, stabilizing the exchange rate flexibly is the key task in macroeconomic management from now until the end of the year.

According to Dr. Can Van Luc - Member of the Policy Advisory Council, to promote economic growth in the last months of the year, first of all, digital transformation and application of science and technology need to be implemented more drastically to increase labor productivity as well as productivity of total factors.

Dr. Tran Du Lich - Member of the National Monetary Policy Advisory Council. *Photo: NLĐ*

At the same time, promoting green growth and proactively adapting to climate change are imperative. On the other hand, it is necessary to gradually improve the position in the global value chain and promote supporting industries so that domestic enterprises can have a more solid foothold.

Promoting regional connectivity also needs to be prioritized, in particular, economic locomotives such as Ho Chi Minh City, Hanoi, and Da Nang must achieve growth rates higher than the national average to lead the economy.

"In my opinion, the growth target of 8.3 - 8.5% is feasible, but we also need to prepare for a lower scenario, around 8%. To achieve that, both consumption and investment must be strongly stimulated," Dr. Can Van Luc believes.

From a financial perspective, Mr. Nguyen Anh Tuan - Deputy Director of the Institute of Economic and Financial Strategy and Policy (Ministry of Finance) informed that in the last months of the year, fiscal policy continued to be expanded conditionally, both promoting growth and tightly controlling budget discipline.

Therefore, the growth target of 8.3 - 8.5% in 2025 can be achieved if fiscal policy continues to closely follow the Government's orientation, harmoniously combining conditional spending expansion and budget discipline, while closely coordinating with monetary policy. This will be an important pillar for the economy to not only overcome short-term challenges, but also aim for sustainable growth and long-term goals in the next decade.

3 pillars: consumption, public investment and export

Sharing the same view, Dr. Tran Du Lich - Member of the National Monetary Policy Advisory Council said that if we look at the three pillars of economic growth - consumption, public investment and export, public investment plays a particularly important role. Strong disbursement in the fourth quarter not only stimulates aggregate demand but also immediately shows its effectiveness on the economy.

Dr. Phan Huu Duy Quoc, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Construction Corporation No. 1 (CC1). *Photo: NLĐ*

Therefore, it is necessary to prioritize the use of domestic resources such as iron, steel, stone, and domestic construction materials, both to promote growth and support domestic production. At the same time, it is necessary to resolve bottlenecks in compensation, site clearance, and project quality.

Speaking at the forum, Dr. Phan Huu Duy Quoc, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Construction Corporation No. 1 (CC1), expressed his delight at the draft administrative reform, which includes a proposal to issue construction permits within just one week. According to Mr. Quoc, if implemented, this will be a strong boost to unblock private capital flows.

Discussing solutions to promote export growth, contributing to the overall goal of the economy, Ms. Nguyen Cam Trang - Deputy Director of the Import-Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) suggested having synchronous solutions from all three pillars, including the supply side, the demand side and export organization stages. In which, economic diplomacy continues to play a key role.

Another important direction is market diversification. New free trade agreements are being implemented in a diversification direction, targeting potential regions such as the Middle East and the Gulf region. Along with that, institutional reform and removing difficulties for businesses continue to be top priorities.

Despite the global context with many political and trade risks, Vietnam's economy in the first 8 months of 2025 still achieved many positive results. Exports increased by 14.8%, reaching nearly 306 billion USD, while imports were about 292 billion USD, helping the economy to have a trade surplus of 14 billion USD. Disbursement of public investment capital also improved with 463,200 billion VND, equal to 48.3% of the yearly plan, up nearly 27% over the same period in 2024.

In August alone, the country started and inaugurated 250 typical projects, which are expected to contribute more than 18% of GDP this year. Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue increased by 9.4%.

Source: https://hanoimoi.vn/dong-luc-nao-cho-tang-truong-gdp-dat-8-3-8-5-717390.html