Forecasting the prospects of "king" stocks in the second half of 2025

Trading below book value

According to data from WiChart, the price/book value (P/B) ratio of the group of 27 listed banks reached 1.51 times at the end of the first quarter of 2025, up 1% compared to the end of 2024. Of which, ABBank had the lowest P/B, at 0.58 times as of March 31. The book value of each ABB share of ABBank is VND13,870, according to the financial report for the first quarter of 2025, while the closing price on March 31 was only VND7,900/share.

Next, VietABank (code VAB) has the second lowest P/B valuation, at 0.63 times at the end of Q1/2025. KienlongBank (code KLB) is the third lowest valued, with a P/B ratio of 0.7 times at the end of Q1/2025.

Other banks in the low valuation list include VietBank, MSB, OCB, SHB , TPBank, Bac A Bank and VPBank. Of which, TPBank's valuation continues to be 18% cheaper than at the beginning of the year, OCB and VPBank are 4% cheaper, KienlongBank is 1% cheaper. By the end of the first quarter of 2025, there are 8 banks with a P/B of less than or equal to 1.

On the other hand, some banks are valued at P/B over 2 times, such as Vietcombank, LPBank and NCB. As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, NCB's P/B increased by 26% compared to the beginning of the year, the second highest in the industry, after SHB. According to the financial report for the first quarter of 2025, NCB's book value per share was VND10,003, while the market price on March 31 was VND11,600/share.

In response to shareholders' concerns about the lack of increase in OCB's stock price in recent times, at the 2025 Annual General Meeting of Shareholders held at the end of April 2025, OCB Chairman of the Board of Directors, Mr. Trinh Van Tuan, said that OCB's stock price is lower than its book value and lower than stocks in the same industry (OCB's P/B was only 0.82 at the end of last week, while the average of private banks was 1.25). Thus, this stock is being discounted by up to 35%. Mr. Tuan admitted that when business results do not meet expectations, the stock price is also affected.

Outlook for the second half of the year

According to Mr. Trinh Van Tuan, OCB has been and is introducing a number of solutions to improve its financial health, business situation, and create trust with existing shareholders and potential investors. Accordingly, first of all, OCB will improve its financial situation more positively, becoming one of the banks operating effectively, higher than the industry average.

At the end of the first quarter of 2025, OCB's asset size increased compared to the beginning of the year, reaching VND 289,067 billion, up 3%. The bank also recorded outstanding loans in market 1 reaching VND 184,388 billion, with significant contributions from the small and medium-sized enterprise customer group (growth rate of 9.3%). Pre-tax profit reached VND 893 billion, core activities maintained good growth momentum.

Dr. Nguyen Thi Phuong Thao, Permanent Vice Chairwoman of HDBank's Board of Directors, said that HDBank is not only proud of the numbers (profit target in 2025 is over VND 21,000 billion, total assets are aiming for VND 1 million billion), but more importantly, the belief in the future of a bank with solid development. HDBank always acts for transparency, for the foundation of trust and that is an invaluable asset for the Bank to continuously attract investors, improve its position in the market, and create sustainable value for all shareholders.

In addition, Techcombank, MBBank, ACB have high ROA (return on assets) and good profitability. However, the stocks of these banks are not overvalued (P/B is low compared to the industry and the 5-year average), creating attractive investment opportunities...

With bank stocks outperforming the VN-Index in 2024, VinaCapital analysts expect that the sector’s stock prices will continue to increase well in 2025, thanks to stronger profit growth and low valuations (1.3x P/B vs. 16% ROE). However, the stock price performance of each bank will be clearly differentiated due to large differences in valuation, asset quality, and profit growth.

According to FiinTrade, the risk of narrowing NIM (net interest margin) still exists, especially in the group of state-owned banks, in the context that the Government maintains a policy of stabilizing interest rates to support economic growth. The slow recovery of credit demand also makes it difficult for banks to raise interest rates due to concerns that fierce competition may reduce market share. This shows that in the coming quarters, the growth momentum of the banking industry continues to depend on the speed of credit expansion, instead of expectations on net interest margin.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/du-bao-trien-vong-co-phieu-vua-nua-cuoi-nam-2025-d283314.html