Coffee price today 10/24/2024
World coffee prices adjusted in opposite directions with robusta and arabica continuing to increase, and some new developments appearing in the market.
Domestic coffee prices have slightly adjusted, trading in the range of 109,600 - 110,000 VND/kg. In major coffee growing regions such as the Central Highlands, Lam Dong, and Dak Lak , the harvest season comes when the weather is dry and favorable and the coffee beans are fully ripe.
The strong US dollar has pushed gold and crude oil prices lower. However, coffee has recovered after falling too much in the previous days. The market has seen resistance as new crop supplies from Vietnam have not yet entered the market. Dealers said that foreign demand for Vietnamese coffee is declining as many countries have secured coffee supplies from other sources, especially when the EU's deforestation regulations are expected to come into effect at the end of 2024, a delay from the original plan.
Speculators are also reducing their net long positions ahead of the harvest in the world’s top robusta producer, which is expected to ramp up sales next month. The European Union’s (EU) delay in enforcing its anti-deforestation rule (EUDR) has reduced the urgency for new deals, further dampening the market.
The outlook for Vietnam’s 2024-25 coffee crop is not optimistic due to the impact of the drought earlier this year. But the long-term outlook is also uncertain, with recovery and supply prospects for the 2025/26 crop still needing further monitoring due to the relatively late arrival of rains. Coffee farmers say the re-blooming of flowers after the rains has signaled a positive sign for the recovery of production after a long drought. In addition, according to some sources, climate change could significantly reduce the area of commercial agricultural land available in Vietnam in the coming decades.
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| Domestic coffee prices today, October 24, increased slightly by 200 - 300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Kitco) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on October 23, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange fluctuated, the November 2024 delivery period decreased by 5 USD, trading at 4,482 USD/ton. The January 2025 delivery period increased by 18 USD, trading at 4,443 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased, with the December 2024 delivery period increasing by 2.5 cents, trading at 252.35 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery period increased by 2.35 cents, trading at 251.05 cents/lb. Average trading volume.
Domestic coffee prices today, October 24, increased slightly by 200 - 300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
The 2023-2024 crop year ended with a supply-demand balance tilted towards a surplus of 1 million bags. However, the 2024-2025 coffee production is forecast to be heavily impacted by extreme weather factors. Therefore, coffee prices in the third quarter are expected to remain high, double that of the same period last year.
Industry insiders believe that coffee prices in the fourth quarter may be adjusted down due to additional supply from major coffee growing countries, including Vietnam.
Some of the world’s largest coffee traders have already begun signing contracts to supply coffee under the new EUDR standards, which are being sold at a premium of 3 to 5 cents over the New York coffee futures price.
However, experts say that even if Europe postpones the EUDR, the risk of a supply shortage remains. The market needs to focus on the supply-demand situation. At the same time, the risk of drought in major coffee producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam could lead to a supply deficit in the 2024-2025 crop year. Therefore, we believe that the price adjustment in Q4 is only temporary.
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