Robusta coffee prices decrease, Arabica is in high demand, Vietnamese goods still have a "bright chance" to increase

Global coffee production in 2023-2024 is expected to reach 171.4 million bags, while consumption is at a record 169.5 million bags. World coffee inventories are expected to fall to a 12-year low of 26.5 million bags, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

World coffee prices at the opening session of the year, Robusta coffee prices continued to decrease, Arabica coffee prices increased well. The stronger USD pushed commodity exchanges down, including coffee. Only Arabica coffee prices continued to increase due to speculative buying.

According to the USDA report, global coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year is forecast to reach 171.4 million bags (60 kg/bag), an increase of 4.2% or 6.9 million bags compared to the previous crop year.

Increased output in key arabica coffee producing countries such as Brazil, Colombia and Ethiopia is expected to offset a decline in Indonesia, one of the main robusta producers in Southeast Asia.

With this forecast, global Arabica coffee production in 2023-2024 is expected to increase by 9.4 million bags to 97.3 million bags.

In contrast, robusta fell for the second consecutive year to 74.1 million bags compared to 76.6 million bags in the previous crop year and the lowest level in the last four crop years.

Domestic coffee prices today, January 3, decreased by 600 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Koreajoongangdaily)

Recorded in the first trading session of 2024, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange decreased, the delivery term in March 2024 decreased by 37 USD, trading at 2,804 USD/ton. The delivery term in May 2024 decreased by 25 USD, trading at 2,732 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange continued to increase well, with the March 2024 delivery period increasing by 1.85 cents, trading at 190.15 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2024 delivery period increased by 1.45 cents, trading at 187.65 cents/lb. Average trading volume.

Domestic coffee prices today, January 3, decreased by 600 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities.

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	24,120	- 20
DAK LAK	67,900	- 600
LAM DONG	67,000	- 600
GIA LAI	67,700	- 600
DAK NONG	67,900	- 600

Unit: VND/kg.

(Source: Giacaphe.com)

Last year, Arabica coffee prices recorded a 12.6% increase, while robusta rose 58% due to a decline in exports from top producer Vietnam, while demand was strong.

USDA forecasts Vietnam's robusta coffee output in the 2023-2024 crop year at around 26.6 million bags, up 1.2% from the previous crop year; while arabica will decrease 11.1% to 880,000 bags.

However, Vietnam's total supply is still lower than the previous crop year as the carryover inventory in the 2022-23 crop year is only 390,000 bags, down sharply from 3.58 million bags in the 2021-22 crop year.

As a result, Vietnam’s green coffee exports are forecast to decline by 2.4 million bags to 23 million bags. Ending stocks for 2023-24 are expected to remain low at 359,000 tonnes.

In 2023, according to records, by June there was almost no more coffee left in the population, but in 2024, this may happen by April or May.

From now until April 2024, EU coffee importers can only rely on Vietnam if they want to buy robusta coffee, as other major robusta producing countries have not entered the crop yet. Therefore, the growth momentum of robusta is still very bright.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-312024-gia-ca-phe-robusta-giam-arabica-dat-hang-hang-viet-van-sang-cua-tang-256036.html