Robusta coffee price exceeds 5,100 USD, the highest price in the world has no goods for sale, the future is still increasing

In just over a month, Vietnam will enter the new crop harvest season. With the current price trend, this year, coffee farmers can rest assured that they can sell their products at high prices, maintaining a level of 100,000 VND/kg or more.

Coffee price today 8/25/2024

World coffee prices increased sharply at the end of the week. Robusta coffee prices continued to set records, creating a new "unimaginable" peak - 5,000 USD/ton.

Domestic coffee prices closed this week's session with an increase of VND1,500/kg, continuing to push the transaction price up to VND119,000 - 119,800/kg.

Coffee prices turned sharply after a correction on Thursday (August 22) with the help of the USD. The USD fell sharply after US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a clear signal that the long-awaited US interest rate cut will take place next month. In the market, the forecast for the first Fed rate cut in September has reached 100%. 70% predict the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25% for the first time and 30% predict the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.5% for the first time.

Coffee prices have been on a strong uptrend this week, with only Thursday's trading session seeing a reversal and a drop. Bloomberg reported that frost concerns in Brazil have eased, with new forecasts suggesting there was no threat from the cold snap on Sunday morning as previously reported. Arabica futures halted a six-day rally as concerns about frost risk eased in Brazil, amid market volatility as the front-month contract entered the delivery period.

Fernando Maximiliano, an analyst at StoneX, said the price correction was “natural” as the latest forecasts showed cold weather over the weekend would not bring frost to coffee growing regions. However, he added that market volatility would continue, as traders also worry that the recent dry spell could hurt the next crop.

This Thursday is also the first day of notice, when traders can choose to liquidate on the floor or declare physical delivery. The spread between September and December futures prices widened, which typically indicates good buying demand for short-term supplies.

Domestic coffee prices at the end of the week (August 24) increased by VND1,500/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Freepik)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of this weekend's trading session (August 23), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased sharply, with the September 2024 delivery term increasing by 225 USD, trading at 5,128 USD/ton. The November 2024 delivery term increased by 141 USD, trading at 4,715 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased sharply, with the September 2024 delivery term increasing by 4.40 cents, trading at 247.30 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the December 2024 delivery term increased by 3.60 cents, trading at 244.80 cents/lb. The average trading volume was high.

Domestic coffee prices at the end of the week (August 24) increased by VND1,500/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	24,820	+ 70
DAK LAK	119,800	+ 1,500
LAM DONG	119,000	+ 1,500
GIA LAI	119,800	+ 1,500
DAK NONG	119,800	+ 1,500

(Source: giacaphe.com)

Coffee prices are on an all-time high. The London exchange has surpassed the historic mark of $5,000 per tonne, but according to industry insiders, domestic prices in Vietnam have actually surpassed this figure. The main reason is still a lack of supply. Vietnam’s robusta coffee is the most expensive in the world, but there is no product to sell and we have to wait for the new harvest to begin in a month.

Experts from the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa) said that in addition to supply issues, there are many factors that cause prices to skyrocket, such as military tensions in the world, unusual climate, and even financial factors such as the recent spike in gold prices.

The high coffee prices are also attributed to the EU's anti-deforestation regulations, which will officially take effect on January 1, 2025. This regulation requires certain agricultural products, including coffee, to enter the EU market to prove that the land used is not related to deforestation.

Many organizations have called on the EU to delay the implementation of the anti-deforestation regulation, but the organization has not yet had any official response. Therefore, many roasters in Europe are actively preparing for the implementation of this regulation by actively stockpiling goods and investing in technology to apply product origin monitoring.

Vietnamese experts predict that the export price of Vietnamese goods in the next harvest will be different from previous years. Normally, at harvest time, prices will be adjusted down sharply due to abundant supply, especially in the first quarter. However, the next harvest will be different, even if supply increases in the short term, prices will only be adjusted slightly, maintaining a level of VND100,000/kg or more. This is because the total supply next year will continue to decrease due to the impact of extreme weather and the inventory transferred to the new crop will be almost zero.

With the current trend, this year, coffee farmers can rest assured that they can sell their products at high prices in the next harvest. With the current price increase trend, coffee growers in the Central Highlands are excited because in just over a month they will enter the new harvest season. For the first time, farmers have the opportunity to sell their products at prices above 100,000 VND/kg.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-2582024-gia-ca-phe-robusta-vuot-nguong-5100-usd-gia-cao-nhat-the-gioi-cung-khong-co-hang-ban-tuong-lai-van-la-tang-283807.html