World coffee prices have all decreased, robusta slightly, arabica deeply, when the strong increase of the greenback has pushed commodity prices in general into recession, while the pressure of Brazil's "biennial" harvest still dominates the market.
At the end of this weekend's trading session (September 22), coffee prices on international exchanges decreased slightly. Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for November 2023 delivery decreased by 3 USD, trading at 2,461 USD/ton. The January 2024 delivery decreased by 9 USD, trading at 2,369 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange for December 2023 delivery decreased by 3.7 cents, trading at 151.15 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2024 delivery price decreased by 3.8 cents, trading at 152.25 cents/lb. Trading volume is high on average.
Although the US Federal Reserve (Fed) did not raise its policy interest rate this time, it maintained a "hawkish" and tough stance, causing the market to fear increased risks. The USD rose to a high level, causing emerging currencies to depreciate. The yield on long-term US Treasury bonds reached its highest level since 2007, attracting massive speculative capital flows and almost abandoning all commodity and stock exchanges.
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| Domestic coffee prices today September 23 slightly decreased by 100 - 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities, in the trading session on September 22. (Source: praguemonitor) |
Meanwhile, coffee futures markets continue to be under pressure from the recently completed harvest in Brazil. In addition, the sharp decline in the Real has prompted Brazilians to boost coffee exports. The third survey report by Conab has revised Brazil’s coffee production this year to around 54.36 million bags, up 13.9% from the 2021 crop in the same “ biennial” cycle.
On September 21, the ICE – London inventory report showed an addition of 1,200 tons, an increase of 2.88% compared to the previous day, to 42,920 tons (equivalent to 715,333 bags, 60 kg bags). The ICE – New York exchange reported a slight decrease of 7,620 bags, down to 440,853 bags.
Domestic coffee prices today September 23 Slight decrease of 100 - 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities, in the trading session on September 22.
Unit: VND/kg. (Source: Giacaphe.com) |
Coffee trading in Vietnam continued to be sluggish this week as stocks ran out and traders waited for the new crop. The new crop in Vietnam theoretically starts in October, but it will not be available until late November.
According to the Center for Industry and Trade Information, Ministry of Industry and Trade , 2023 is the year that green coffee has the highest export price in many years, however, the amount of coffee in the people as well as in businesses has run out.
The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association said that the amount of coffee exported from August and September is decreasing compared to the same period last year and is expected to continue to decrease. Currently, the coffee season is at the end, so even if businesses want to buy, there is no supply.
According to the Association, coffee prices have been increasing continuously due to supply not meeting demand. This year’s coffee output is forecast to decrease by 10-15%/year due to unfavorable weather. However, coffee exports for the whole year will reach about 1.7 million tons, with an export turnover of 4.2 billion USD, the highest ever.
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