Can reach 130 million VND/tael

World gold prices continued to increase sharply on August 5, approaching the threshold of 3,400 USD/ounce. In Vietnam, the price of SJC gold bars also jumped to nearly 124 million VND/tael. According to Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan (Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics ), the main reason is that the US labor market is weaker than expected, increasing the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates, thereby pushing gold prices up.

“That shows that the US economy is weakening. Along with the impact of tariffs and Donald Trump’s recent policies, it raises expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will soon have to cut interest rates to support the economy. At that time, gold prices will increase sharply,” Mr. Huan analyzed.

Domestic gold prices often fluctuate according to world trends. However, Mr. Huan pointed out a remarkable paradox.

“When world prices increase, domestic prices increase accordingly. However, when world prices decrease sharply, domestic prices only decrease slightly, or even remain unchanged. The reason is that the demand for selling gold is low, while the demand for buying gold among the people is very large, but the supply is limited. Whenever prices decrease, people buy more, creating support for the market,” Mr. Huan explained to VietNamNet reporters .

This has pushed the price difference between SJC gold bars and world gold very high, currently over 15 million VND/tael.

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According to experts, the high difference in domestic and international gold prices will pose risks to domestic gold holders. Photo: Nguyen Hue

Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, a finance and banking expert, said that the recent fluctuations in world gold prices are mainly due to short-term buying and selling activities of investors.

“The world gold price has reached a high level, leading many investors to sell to take profits, causing short-term downward pressure on prices. However, in the medium and long term, the upward trend is still dominant,” the expert said.

According to Mr. Hieu, complex geopolitical factors, as well as US tariff issues with other countries, are creating momentum for global gold prices. Recently, statistics show that the US labor market has improved, but President Donald Trump is still not satisfied and has fired the head of the labor statistics agency. At the same time, Mr. Trump is also putting pressure on and looking for a replacement for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to promote interest rate cuts.

“All of the above factors cause the world gold market to fluctuate and still have an upward trend,” said Mr. Hieu.

Meanwhile, the domestic gold market is not connected to the world market, and the supply is limited. Mr. Hieu analyzed that the scarcity of supply has pushed the domestic gold price up sharply, even though the world gold price sometimes decreased.

“There was a time when the domestic gold price exceeded 123 million VND/tael and it is possible that the gold price will reach 130 million VND/tael, but it is difficult to predict when. However, the gold price may reach 125 million VND/tael in the next few months,” the expert predicted.

Risk Warning

Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan acknowledged that the difference in domestic and world gold prices of more than 15 million VND/tael will pose risks to those holding domestic gold.

That is a policy risk. Whenever the State Bank tightens control over the market, or the Prime Minister directs measures to narrow the gap between domestic and world gold prices, or Decree 24 is amended - that is, when policies change and supply is cleared, domestic gold prices can completely fall sharply to get closer to world prices," Mr. Huan commented.

Meanwhile, Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu warned that if this situation persists, it will cause concern for the economy.

“High gold prices can stimulate inflation. Too much money flowing into gold will drain resources from production and business, affecting real economic growth. The large difference increases the risk of foreign currency loss, when subjects take advantage to smuggle gold,” Mr. Hieu said.

Commenting on the upcoming trend, Mr. Huan said that the world gold price is at the "peak distribution zone", although the price has increased and decreased, it is still at the peak.

“It is very difficult to predict the world gold price at this time when the price is still hovering around the 3,300-3,400 USD/ounce range. It needs to surpass the 3,500 USD/ounce mark to establish a new uptrend. Currently, the gold price is still moving sideways within a very strong fluctuation range, meaning that when the price decreases, it will decrease sharply and when it increases, it will also increase very sharply,” Mr. Huan commented.

According to him, the world gold price is affected by geopolitical factors and Mr. Trump's psychology, so in general it can still "anchor" at a high level. In that context, money flow may find other more attractive investment channels.

“If the gold price remains stable at 120-125 million VND/tael in the next few months, while the real estate market begins to show signs of warming up, a large amount of money will leave gold and flow into real estate. That is normal. Investors need to be extremely careful during this period,” Mr. Huan recommended.

Faced with unpredictable fluctuations in gold prices, expert Nguyen Tri Hieu advised investors and people to be extremely cautious.

“When gold prices increase, selling pressure will appear to lock in profits, creating unexpected deep declines. Those who buy at high prices are likely to be at a disadvantage. Investing in gold at this time is a risky channel, so you need to consider carefully,” he warned.

Source: https://vietnamnet.vn/gia-vang-du-bao-som-leo-len-dinh-moi-chuyen-gia-chi-ra-mot-nghich-ly-2428845.html