Gasoline prices are expected to decrease for the fourth consecutive time in the operating period tomorrow, September 12.

Domestic gasoline prices at tomorrow's adjustment session (September 12) are likely to decrease for the fourth consecutive time, with a sharp decrease following world prices.

Tomorrow (September 12) is the retail price management period. gasoline according to Decree 80/2023/ND-CP amending and supplementing a number of articles of Decree 95/2021/ND-CP and Decree 83/2014/ND-CP of the Government on petroleum trading.

At 6:00 a.m. on September 11, Brent crude oil was trading at $69.19 per barrel, down $2.56 from the previous session. WTI crude oil was trading at $66.33 per barrel, down $0.58 per ounce.

Oil prices fell today due to weakening global demand outlook and expectations of oil oversupply.

In its monthly report, OPEC said world oil demand will grow by 2.03 million barrels per day this year, down from last month's forecast of 2.11 million barrels per day growth, Reuters reported.

Last month, OPEC kept its forecast unchanged since it first released it in July 2023.

OPEC also cut its 2025 global demand growth estimate to 1.74 million barrels per day, down 0.04 million barrels.

Based on the developments in world oil prices, some oil trading enterprises believe that domestic gasoline prices at the adjustment session tomorrow, September 12, are likely to be adjusted downward.

Oil and gas companies predict that if the regulator does not affect the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund, domestic gasoline prices may decrease by VND1,050-1,250 per liter. Diesel prices are expected to decrease by VND950-1,050 per liter. In case the regulator draws from the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund, gasoline prices may decrease less.

If the above forecast is correct, domestic gasoline prices will decrease for the fourth consecutive time. Accordingly, the price of RON 95 gasoline will fall below VND20,000/liter.

The Vietnam Petroleum Institute (VPI)'s Machine Learning-based gasoline price forecasting model also shows that, in the upcoming September 12 adjustment period, the retail price of E5 RON 92 gasoline is forecast to decrease by VND959/liter (4.8%) to VND19,011/liter, while RON 95-III gasoline may decrease by VND841/liter (4%) to VND19,979/liter.

VPI's model predicts that retail oil prices will also tend to decrease sharply this period; in which, fuel oil is forecast to decrease by about 5.3% to 14,352 VND/kg, diesel is forecast to decrease by 3.5% to 17,448 VND/liter, and kerosene will decrease by 2.6% to 18,232 VND/liter. VPI predicts that the Ministry of Finance - Industry and Trade will continue not to set aside or use the Petroleum Price Stabilization Fund this period.

If VPI's forecast remains as accurate as previous forecasts, this will be the third consecutive time that gasoline prices on the market have continued to decrease in the past three weeks.

In the most recent petrol price adjustment period (September 5), the prices of petrol and oil were jointly regulated by the ministries. Industry and Trade - Finance adjusted downward.

Specifically, the price of E5 gasoline was adjusted down by 360 VND/liter, selling price to 19,970 VND/liter. The price of RON 95 gasoline decreased by 280 VND/liter, selling price to 20,820 VND/liter.

Similarly, diesel price also decreased by 380 VND/liter, down to 18,090 VND/liter. Kerosene price decreased by 340 VND/liter, down to 18,720 VND/liter.

Currently, the room for the petroleum price stabilization fund of some key enterprises is still recording a large positive level because in many recent management periods, the fund has not been used. Of which, as of September 11, Petrolimex recorded a positive fund of VND 3,079 billion; PV Oil had a negative fund of more than VND 138 billion; Saigon Petro had a positive fund of VND 328 billion; Petimex had a positive fund of VND 460 billion...

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