Tug of war in the market: MXV-Index falls, coffee and soybeans still attract buying power

The world raw material market recorded relatively mixed developments in yesterday's trading session (November 25). The MXV-Index closed at 2,300 points, down nearly 0.3% compared to the previous session. However, the market still recorded strong buying power in the coffee market as concerns about supply continued to persist as well as the recovery of soybean prices following the US's reassuring move.

Coffee prices rise sharply on concerns about tightening supply

Closing yesterday's trading session, the industrial raw materials group witnessed green covering most of the key commodities in the group. Of which, Arabica coffee price increased by more than 1.6% to 9,131 USD/ton; Robusta coffee price also increased by nearly 2.4% to 4,559 USD/ton.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the hot growth of coffee is mainly due to growing concerns about the global supply outlook, especially in Brazil and Vietnam. While Brazil is witnessing a sharp decline in export volume and drought is threatening the output of the 2026-2027 crop, Vietnam is also facing unprecedented floods in the Central Highlands, causing great damage to coffee growing areas at the key stage of the harvest.

In addition, the tight supply situation is also clearly reflected in global inventory data. In Antwerp - the largest Robusta and Arabica coffee storage center in Europe, in June, the US Department of Agriculture estimated the inventory/consumption ratio for the 2025-2026 crop year at only 12.85% - the second lowest level on record and the third consecutive year below the 15% threshold, reflecting a clear tightness in supply this crop year.

Meanwhile, Climatempo data shows that drought will continue to affect coffee-producing regions in Brazil’s central-south region this weekend, although conditions will also ease in the Bahia and Espírito Santo regions. However, early next week, a new cold front is expected to move in along the Brazilian coast, directly affecting key growing regions.

In the domestic market of Vietnam, the coffee trading atmosphere yesterday was quite gloomy, with the purchase price at the warehouse remaining stable at around 110,000 - 111,000 VND/kg, some places urgently needed goods and had to accept to buy at 111,500 VND/kg. Although the harvest is still going well and the Chu Se area (Gia Lai) is expected to reach its peak in the next 20 days, most farmers are still conservative in their mentality of waiting for prices to increase, causing the transaction volume to only take place at a small scale - about 5-20 tons/day. In Dak Lak , the price of finished products of type R2 and R1 is currently between 111,000 - 113,300 VND/kg depending on the type of screen. For exports, large enterprises in key provinces such as Dak Lak, Lam Dong and Gia Lai still maintain the purchase price threshold of 110,000 - 111,500 VND/kg, in the context of warehouses slowing down emissions to further monitor market developments.

Soybean prices recover slightly

Not only the industrial raw materials group, agricultural products yesterday also recorded a dominant buying force when the US President Donald Trump's administration continuously made statements to reassure investors. In particular, soybeans especially attracted the attention of the market when many experts were concerned about the possibility of China fully implementing its commitment to buy 12 million tons of US soybeans as announced by the US. At the end of yesterday's trading session, soybean prices on the CBOT floor increased slightly by 0.13% to 413 USD/ton.

The latest positive signal from Washington came from US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who in an interview with CNBC yesterday said China’s soybean imports from the US were “on track,” citing a deal Beijing has signed to buy 87.5 million tonnes of the product from the US over the next three and a half years.

Minister Bessent also added that although the two countries have always been competitors, bilateral relations between the two countries remain in good condition, and senior leaders of the two sides are expected to have up to four meetings in 2026.

Earlier, on November 24, both Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins and President Donald Trump reaffirmed their optimism about China's ability to fulfill its commitment to buy 12 million tons of US soybeans that the White House announced earlier this month.

In addition, the market also recorded many signs reinforcing the possibility of China increasing imports of US soybeans. According to Reuters, two cargo ships headed to grain ports near New Orleans on Monday to load the first soybean shipments to China since May this year. Previously, information about China canceling some orders from Argentina to make room for US soybeans also appeared on the market.

However, the rise in soybean prices is still restrained by concerns about actual demand from China, in the context of fierce price competition pressure on US soybeans. Currently, US soybean prices are about 37 USD/ton higher than Brazilian soybeans - the world's largest supplier - making investors worried about the prospect of demand from China in the coming time.

In another development, the positive sentiment in the soybean market has spread to other agricultural products, especially when investors expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in December. This move could weaken the USD, making US agricultural products more competitive in price with foreign importers.

CBOT wheat prices rose nearly 1% in yesterday's trading session. In contrast, profit-taking ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday created strong selling pressure, causing corn prices to fall slightly less than 0.1%.

Source: https://baotintuc.vn/thi-truong-tien-te/giang-co-tren-thi-truong-mxvindex-sut-caphe-va-dau-tuong-van-hut-luc-mua-20251126083340228.htm