Robusta coffee prices jump more than 6% on supply concerns

Robusta coffee prices unexpectedly rose sharply, ending a five-session losing streak due to supply shortage risks from Vietnam and Brazil. In contrast, the metal market recorded selling pressure.

According to the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), the world commodity market in the trading session on November 18 recorded a clear differentiation. The focus was on the strong recovery of coffee prices, while the metal group continued to face selling pressure.

Robusta coffee prices jumped more than 6% to $4,483/ton , breaking a five-session losing streak. Arabica coffee prices also rose slightly by nearly 0.7% to $6,674/ton . The increase was fueled by growing concerns about a global supply shortage.

Coffee prices rise sharply due to supply risks

Supply and demand fundamentals are the main drivers supporting the rise in coffee prices. Global inventories remain at record lows, while adverse weather in major producing countries is putting pressure on supply.

Source: MXV

Impact of weather in Vietnam

In Vietnam, Typhoon Kalmaegi, which hit the Central Highlands, has severely disrupted the 2025-2026 crop harvest. Key coffee growing regions such as Chu Se (Gia Lai), Ea H'leo, Cu M'gar ( Dak Lak ) and Lam Dong have only completed about 10-20% of their acreage. Prolonged heavy rains have made it difficult for farmers to dry their beans, affecting the quality of beans and raising concerns about the actual Robusta output.

Brazilian exports and global inventories fall

In Brazil, coffee exports averaged 12,850 tonnes per day in the first 10 working days of November, down 14.4% from the same period last year. Meanwhile, inventories at the ICE exchange continued to shrink, with Arabica inventories falling to 400,800 bags, a 1.75-year low, and Robusta inventories to 5,650 lots, a four-month low.

The domestic market is sluggish.

In the domestic market, trading activities remain quite quiet. Some warehouses maintain the purchase price at 108,000-109,000 VND/kg. In Buon Ma Thuot (Dak Lak), purchasing activities have resumed but with limited volume due to scattered rains slowing down farmers' sales progress.

Metal markets under selling pressure

In contrast to the industrial raw materials group, the metal market recorded widespread selling pressure. COMEX copper prices continued to fall more than 1% to $11,049/ton , marking the third consecutive decline.

Source: MXV

Strong US dollar and Fed rate expectations

The weakness in copper prices was driven by a double whammy of a stronger US dollar and supply-demand signals. The US dollar index (DXY) rose 0.29%, approaching the 100-point mark. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) keeping interest rates unchanged in December has increased to 57%. Maintaining high interest rates strengthens the US dollar, putting pressure on commodities priced in this currency.

Copper supply outlook improves

Expectations of improved supply also weighed on prices. In the US, Washington added copper to its list of critical minerals to boost domestic mining. In Chile, output from the world’s largest copper mine, Escondida, jumped 17% in September to 118,600 tonnes.

Demand from China shows signs of weakening

On the other hand, demand from China, the world’s largest copper consumer, is showing signs of weakening. The country’s refining industry is facing overcapacity. Data from China Customs shows that imports of copper ore and concentrate fell for the second consecutive month, to nearly 2.5 million tonnes in October.

Source: https://baolamdong.vn/gia-ca-phe-robusta-tang-vot-hon-6-do-lo-ngai-ve-nguon-cung-403507.html