High growth targets put significant pressure on the banking system.

Vietnam aims for double-digit economic growth during the 2026-2030 period; however, its reliance on bank credit is creating significant systemic risks.

Enormous capital requirements for growth

The target of double-digit economic growth in the 2026-2030 period is placing unprecedented demands on the mobilization and efficient use of financial resources, putting significant pressure on the banking system. Speaking at the economic forum on December 16th, Deputy Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam, Pham Thanh Ha, emphasized that this goal requires the economy to maintain a high and stable growth rate for many consecutive years.

According to Mr. Ha, ensuring sufficient capital for the economy, while allocating and using it effectively to promote a growth model based on science and technology, is a key factor. This is not just a matter of capital scale, but also of quality and efficiency of use.

Providing specific figures, Ms. Ha Thu Giang, Director of the Department of Credit for Economic Sectors (State Bank of Vietnam), stated that as of November 27th, outstanding credit in the entire economy had exceeded 18.2 million billion VND, an increase of 16.56% compared to the end of 2024. The credit structure has also shifted positively, focusing on priority areas such as agriculture and rural areas (accounting for 23% of total outstanding credit) and small and medium-sized enterprises (approximately 19%).

Increased pressure and risk.

Although bank credit plays a crucial role in providing capital for key projects, pressure on the system is increasing. Ms. Ha Thu Giang pointed out that the corporate bond and securities markets have not yet fully played their role as channels for providing medium and long-term capital, placing a heavy burden on banks.

The biggest problem is maturity risk, as credit institutions have to use short-term mobilized capital to provide medium and long-term loans. Currently, short-term deposits account for about 80% of the total deposits in the entire system. "The demand for medium and long-term capital for key national projects is very large, creating considerable pressure on credit institutions in balancing capital sources and controlling risks," Ms. Giang noted.

Expert warning

From the perspective of the Vietnam Banking Association, Dr. Nguyen Quoc Hung, Vice President and General Secretary, warned that continued reliance on bank credit would increase the risks to the financial system. Dr. Hung argued that in the context of banks having to comply with higher international standards such as Basel III, pressure on bad debt and liquidity could return if credit growth becomes too rapid.

Sharing international experience, representatives from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) also noted that periods of rapid credit growth are often accompanied by an increase in non-performing loans. The IMF recommended that Vietnam focus on structural reforms, improving productivity, and policy efficiency to maintain sustainable growth. Simultaneously, strengthening banking supervision and enhancing transparency are urgent requirements for the coming period.

Source: https://baolamdong.vn/muc-tieu-tang-truong-cao-tao-ap-luc-lon-len-he-thong-ngan-hang-411158.html