Three growth scenarios for the next five years, forecasting the drivers for a breakthrough towards the 10% GDP growth target.

Ba kịch bản tăng trưởng 5 năm tới, dự báo những động lực bứt phá cho mục tiêu GDP tăng 10% - Ảnh 1. — Mr. Nguyen Thanh Nghi - Head of the Central Policy and Strategy Committee - Photo: N.KH.

On the afternoon of December 16th, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Head of the Central Policy and Strategy Committee Nguyen Thanh Nghi co-chaired the Vietnam Economic Forum 2025, Prospects 2026, with the theme "Vietnam's Economy Develops Rapidly, Sustainably, and with a Green Transformation in the Digital Age".

Identifying opportunities and challenges to achieve 10% growth.

According to Mr. Nguyen Thanh Nghi, 2025 will present more challenges than opportunities, but economic growth will be strongly boosted, projected to reach over 8% for the whole year, placing Vietnam among the fastest-growing economies in the world .

Achieving an average economic growth rate of 10% or more per year during the 2026-2030 period is a major challenge, requiring high demands and necessitating the shaping of a new development mindset and the establishment of a new growth model.

This involves creating new growth drivers linked to science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, and green transformation; while simultaneously implementing decisive and effective solutions and organizational measures to maximize and revitalize traditional growth drivers.

Based on the 2026 growth target of 10% or more, Mr. Nguyen Duc Hien, Deputy Head of the Central Policy and Strategy Committee, presented growth forecast scenarios. In the less favorable scenario, the global economy is projected to grow by approximately 2.9%, while the very favorable scenario projects growth of around 3.3%; inflation is projected to range from 1.5% to approximately 3%. Sectors are projected to experience slight growth of 2.9-3.1%, but the recovery momentum remains uncertain and unsustainable.

In this context, Vietnam's opportunities lie in attracting shifting investment flows, embracing green transformation and digital transformation to open up new industries and create new growth drivers. Amidst strategic competition among major centers and countries, Vietnam also has the opportunity to participate more deeply in regional and global supply chains.

Regarding the challenges, Mr. Hien pointed out that the growth model, despite many innovations, has not undergone fundamental changes. In particular, the extensive trade growth model exposes Vietnam to high risks from tariff barriers imposed by other countries. Especially concerning is the risk of being left behind if the process of catching up and adopting technology is unsuccessful.

Industries with growth potential

Accordingly, three growth scenarios for Vietnam in the 2026-2030 period were presented: a baseline scenario of 7.5% growth, a transitional scenario of approximately 8.5%, and a target scenario of 10%; corresponding inflation rates of below 4%, 4%, and 4.5%, respectively; and productivity at 8.5-9.3%.

Sectors with positive growth forecasts include finance and banking, energy, and logistics, which will be leading the way; sectors that contribute significantly but need quality improvement include the digital economy, electronics, and optical products; and sectors that require priority attention include textiles and chemicals.

Regarding capital needs, Mr. Hien believes that to achieve the aforementioned growth rate, total social investment must be approximately 47% higher, and only when capital is actually absorbed and channeled into production will it generate real growth. The contribution of total factor productivity should be around 57%, and labor productivity must increase by 8-9%.

Head of the Committee Nguyen Thanh Nghi emphasized the need to identify areas and regulations that require immediate institutionalization. The goal is to make institutions a truly leading resource, paving the way for the effective mobilization and utilization of resources in the new growth model.

This is linked to promoting the growth and self-reliance of private enterprises in the domestic market, as well as their participation in global supply chains and in emerging and strategic technology sectors.

According to him, only in this way can we move from having "Vietnamese talent" to having "Vietnamese businesses, Vietnamese brands, and Vietnamese products on the world technology map".

Along with that, it is necessary to ensure rapid but sustainable growth, macroeconomic stability; breakthrough, superior, and "friendly" mechanisms and policies for developing new economic models. Identify strategic actions to effectively exploit new development spaces; decentralize power; and utilize experimental and special mechanisms to increase linkages.

Identifying opportunities and challenges to achieve 10% growth.

Industries with growth potential

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