“The US and China have moved into a long-term competition”

Tensions between the US and China are ranked as more than four times more likely than war between Russia and NATO.

“Strategic competition” between the US and China remains the top geopolitical risk facing markets around the world, while the recent thaw in relations between the world’s two leading superpowers is “fragile”.

That is the assessment in the October geopolitical risk dashboard report of BlackRock Inc.

According to the New York-based US investment management group Global Investment Management, tensions between Washington and Beijing are rated “high” risk, with a threat score of 1.5 – nearly double the level of a major terrorist attack.

For comparison, the risk scores for an escalation of conflict in the Middle East following Hamas' attack on Israel and the risk of hostilities between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) were only -0.65 and 0.37.

“The US and China have moved into a long-term rivalry,” said a team of geopolitical strategists led by Catherine Kress in the report. “Both sides are seeking to stabilize the relationship, although any thaw will be fragile.”

Amid low bilateral relations and an uncertain international environment, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is expected to travel to Washington to meet with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan from October 26 to 28, senior officials of the Joe Biden administration said at a press briefing on October 23.

Wang’s visit to the United States comes as the United States and China continue a series of diplomatic engagements aimed at managing bilateral tensions and as the latest wave of conflict in the Middle East shows the limits of potential cooperation, according to officials.

This is also a long-awaited “reciprocal visit” after several top US officials, including Mr. Blinken, visited Beijing this summer.

Officials declined to say whether the Chinese foreign minister would meet with the US president. They also declined to say whether the visit would lay the groundwork for a meeting between Mr Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the 30th APEC leaders’ summit in San Francisco next month, adding only that Mr Biden said he hoped to meet Mr Xi in the near future.

Washington's top priority is to ensure that the fierce competition between the world's two largest economies and their disagreements on a range of issues, from trade and investment to Taiwan (China), the East Sea, Russia's war in Ukraine... do not turn into conflict.

“We continue to believe that direct diplomacy is the best way to raise challenging issues, address misperceptions and disinformation, and seek to work with China where our interests intersect,” US officials said at the briefing.

Mr. Blinken last spoke with Mr. Wang on October 14, when the top U.S. diplomat was in Saudi Arabia on a tour of the Middle East .

Minh Duc (According to Bloomberg, Reuters, Washington Examiner)

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