International tourism to recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2024

UNWTO: Full recovery of international tourism expected by end of 2024. (Photo: UNWTO)

Middle East to lead recovery in 2023

UNWTO's first World Tourism Barometer of the year shows an estimated 1.3 billion international tourist arrivals in 2023, 88% of pre-pandemic levels.

The Middle East led the recovery as the only region to surpass pre-pandemic levels with arrivals up 22% compared to 2019.

Europe, the world's most visited region, reached 94% of 2019 levels, driven by regional demand and arrivals from the US.

Africa has recovered 96% of pre-pandemic tourist numbers and the Americas have reached 90%.

Asia and the Pacific is back to 65% of pre-pandemic levels after some markets and destinations reopened. However, performance has been mixed, with South Asia recovering to 87% of 2019 levels and Northeast Asia around 55%.

UNWTO data shows that a number of destinations, including large, established destinations as well as small and emerging ones, are reporting double-digit growth in international arrivals in 2023 compared to 2019. Four subregions have exceeded 2019 levels: the Southern Mediterranean, the Caribbean, Central America and North Africa.

UNWTO estimates international tourism receipts will reach $1.4 trillion by 2023, 93% of the $1.5 trillion in 2019.

Total export revenues from tourism (including passenger transport) are estimated to reach US$1.6 trillion in 2023, nearly 95% of the US$1.7 trillion in 2019.

Preliminary estimates of the economic contribution of tourism, measured by direct tourism gross domestic product (TDGDP), are expected to reach US$3.3 trillion by 2023, equivalent to 3% of global GDP. This suggests that the recovery in TDGDP before the pandemic is driven by strong domestic and international tourism activity.

The sustained recovery is also reflected in the performance of industry indicators. According to the UNWTO Tourism Recovery Tracker, both international air capacity and passenger demand are expected to recover to around 90% of pre-pandemic levels by October 2023 (IATA). Global occupancy rates for accommodation facilities reached 65% in November, slightly higher than 62% in November 2022 (based on STR data).

“The latest UNWTO data highlights the resilience and rapid recovery of tourism, with pre-pandemic numbers expected by the end of 2024,” said UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili.

“This recovery has had a significant impact on economies, jobs, growth and opportunities for communities everywhere. These figures also remind us of the important task of promoting sustainability and inclusion in tourism development,” said Zurab Pololikashvili.

“A stronger recovery in Asian markets” and a corresponding increase in air connections “are expected to underpin a full recovery of international tourism by the end of 2024,” the UNWTO report said.

Travel trends in 2024

International tourism is expected to fully recover to pre-pandemic levels by 2024, with initial estimates suggesting a 2% growth compared to 2019 levels. This UNWTO central forecast remains dependent on the pace of recovery in Asia and the evolution of existing economic and geopolitical downside risks.

The positive outlook is reflected in the latest UNWTO Travel Confidence Index survey, with 67% of tourism professionals saying the outlook for 2024 is better or much better than 2023. Some 28% expect a similar performance, while just 6% think tourism performance in 2024 will be worse than last year.

Specifically assessing world tourism in 2024, UNWTO makes some forecasts:

There is still significant room for recovery across Asia. The reopening of some source and destination markets will drive the recovery regionally and globally.

China's inbound and outbound tourism is expected to pick up pace in 2024, thanks to visa facilitation and improved aviation capacity. China is offering visa-free travel to citizens of France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and Malaysia for one year until November 30, 2024.

Travel and visa facilitation measures will boost visitor numbers to the Middle East and Africa, with Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries implementing a unified tourist visa, similar to the Schengen visa, and intra-African travel facilitation measures in Kenya and Rwanda.

Europe is expected to continue its impressive recovery into 2024. In March, Romania and Bulgaria will join the Schengen travel-free zone and Paris will host the Summer Olympics in July and August.

Strong tourism from the US, supported by a strong US dollar, will continue to benefit destinations in the Americas and beyond. As in 2023, strong source markets in Europe, the Americas and the Middle East will continue to drive travel flows and tourism spending around the world.

Economic and geopolitical headwinds continue to pose significant challenges to a sustained recovery in international travel and confidence. Persistent inflation, high interest rates, volatile oil prices and trade disruptions are likely to continue to impact transport and accommodation costs into 2024.

In this context, tourists are expected to increasingly seek affordable destinations and travel closer to home. They also prioritize sustainable and resilient destinations.

The shortage of human resources remains a serious problem as tourism businesses face a shortage of workers to meet the increasing demand for tourism.

UNWTO also noted that ongoing conflicts in the Middle East and Europe could disrupt travel to these places and affect tourist confidence.

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