Ukrainian soldiers at the front (Illustration photo: Skynews).
Russia begins to activate "firestorm" in Kupyansk
The Kyiv Post reported on January 5 that Russia has carried out a large-scale, very concentrated and intense mortar, artillery and rocket fire in the Kharkiv region in recent weeks with the aim of softening up the battlefield. That shows their preparations for a counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region.
The commander of the Ukrainian Army, General Oleksandr Syrsky, has warned that the enemy is carrying out planned assaults as it redeploys its forces in preparation for an imminent assault on Liman. Moscow has diverted more armored vehicles and artillery to try to attack with infantry groups, often including units known as “Storm Z”.
Ukraine has spent months preparing its defences in the direction of Kupyansk, which has just 26,000 residents left. The city could become a key logistical base for Moscow’s offensive to the south or west if it falls under Kremlin control.
Since the beginning of the year, the number of shelling attacks on Kharkov and neighboring cities has increased significantly. Russia is increasingly attacking the Kharkov region with S-300 missiles. Ukrainian air defense units stationed in the Kharkov region are almost ineffective against S-300 attacks.
According to the Telegraph report, the surface-to-air missiles have been reprogrammed to attack the ground and because of the speed at which the projectiles travel over short distances, they are almost impossible to intercept.
100,000 Russian troops ready to attack Kupyansk
The Russian army has a fairly strong and largely undamaged force, which appears to have favorable conditions to increase operations in the Kupyansk direction in the Kharkiv and Lugansk regions, military analysts at the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported, Ukrainska Pravda reported.
Ukrainian officials have said Moscow aims to capture Kupyansk and Borovaya (35km west of Svatovo) by winter 2024.
ISW reported that the capture of these towns would likely dislodge Ukrainian forces from the eastern bank of the Oskol River in the Kharkiv region and facilitate future Russian offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatovo-Kremennaya line.
The pace of Russian operations in the Kupyansk direction and the clear disposition of Moscow's forces in the Lugansk and Kharkov regions in general do not indicate the approach of a large-scale Moscow offensive operation along the entire Kupyansk - Liman line.
Military analysts note that the Russian military currently does not have enough forces in the Belgorod region to conduct large-scale offensive operations anywhere north or northeast of the Kharkiv region.
Ukrainian officials have not publicly disclosed information about Russia's sudden buildup of forces in the direction of Kupyansk.
Moscow appears to be gradually rebuilding units that suffered significant losses during Kiev’s September 2022 counteroffensive and Russia’s failed winter-spring 2023 offensive. The Russian command intends to use these relatively well-rested and restored units to intensify local offensive operations beginning in October 2023.
Ukrainian President Zelensky visits the front line in the Kharkov region (Photo: AP).
Moscow's forces operating in the direction of Kupyansk - consisting mainly of the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Combined Arms Army (both from the Western Military District) - have not actively participated in major offensive operations since the fighting peaked in April 2023.
Moscow's regular troops in the Kupyansk direction are deployed mainly from the Western Military District and therefore have a certain organizational cohesion, unlike in other regions of Ukraine, which are often deployed from different military districts and airborne units. The relative cohesion of the Russian force concentration in the Kupyansk direction ensures more effective command and control of these forces.
It remains unclear whether these Russian units are capable of conducting large-scale offensive operations significantly more effective than those around Avdiivka.
The British newspaper The Telegraph on January 4 quoted an anonymous source "close" to the Ukrainian military as saying that the Russian army could launch a "ground attack" as early as January 15.
The representative of the Ukrainian Army Command - Lieutenant Colonel Vladimir Fityo - told the Telegraph on January 5 that the Ukrainian army did not record any changes in the composition of enemy forces in the Kharkov region or on Russian territory bordering the Kharkov region, and that the Russian army continued its offensive operations in the Sinkovka region to capture Kupyansk.
Governor of the Kharkiv region Oleg Sinegubov also told the Telegraph, noting that Russian troops were not concentrated in the Kharkiv region in preparation for a large-scale offensive, and that the intensity of enemy attacks in the direction of Kupyansk had decreased over the past three days due to bad weather conditions.
Mr. Sinegubov noted that the Russian military is taking advantage of the slow pace of operations caused by bad weather conditions to mobilize reinforcements to the front line as well as train and coordinate units.
The comments by Fityo and Sinegubov are consistent with ISW's assessment that Russian forces may intensify offensive operations, but not launch a full-scale offensive operation with existing forces in the direction of Kupyansk.
Moscow may be carrying out a gradual buildup, as Ukrainian officials reported that as of October 2023, the Russian military had massed more than 100,000 troops in the direction of Kupyansk and Liman.
Source
Comment (0)