Coffee supply is lower than demand, sellers have the advantage

Coffee prices are forecast to increase slightly in the domestic market on September 28, 2024. In about 3 months, farmers in the Central Highlands will start harvesting coffee. Due to fluctuations in coffee prices, businesses and cooperatives are worried about the lack of clean coffee supply. Businesses are concerned that the price difference between regular coffee and clean coffee may make it difficult to purchase and sell. Harvesting unripe coffee may reduce clean coffee output and affect the reputation of Vietnamese coffee in the long term.

In Vietnam, the export price of robusta coffee is now nearly $900 per ton higher than that of arabica coffee. Previously, robusta coffee was only half the price of this higher-value coffee.

In the first half of September, Vietnam exported 15,155 tons of robusta coffee, earning $76.6 million, at an average price of $5,053 per ton. Meanwhile, Arabica coffee exports reached 1,129 tons, worth $4.7 million, at an average price of $4,166 per ton.

Coffee price forecast September 28: Coffee supply is lower than demand, sellers have the advantage

Domestic coffee prices were updated at 4:30 a.m. on September 27, 2024 as follows: Today's domestic coffee market increased from 100 - 1,200 VND/kg to between 120,800 - 122,000. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 121,400 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong, Dak Lak , and Kon Tum provinces is 122,000 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 120,800 VND, an increase of 100 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 120,700 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 122,000 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at 122,000 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 121,000 VND/kg, an increase of 1,000 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 120,700 VND, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the price is 120,600 VND/kg. In Kon Tum province, the price is 120,700 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at 120,700 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 120,200 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee prices today (September 27) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M'gar district, coffee is purchased at about 122,000 VND/kg, an increase of 1,200 VND/kg, and in Ea H'leo district, Buon Ho town, it is purchased at 120,700 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 9:00 p.m. on September 27, 2024, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 5,466 USD/ton, down 61 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee price today September 27, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com

The November 2024 delivery term is 5,193 USD/ton, down 49 USD; the January 2025 delivery term is 4,975 USD/ton, down 54 USD and the March 2025 delivery term is 4,795 USD/ton, down 64 USD.

Coffee price today September 27, 2024: New York Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 9:00 p.m. on September 27, 2024 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 261.20 - 269.15 cents/lb.

Specifically, the December 2024 delivery period is 269.15 cents/lb; down 4.75 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 2025 delivery period is 267.00 cents/lb, down 4.75 cents/lb; the May 2025 delivery period is 264.40 cents/lb, down 4.65 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 261.20 cents/lb, down 4.40 cents/lb.

Coffee price today September 27, 2024: Brazilian Arabica coffee price. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 9:00 p.m. on September 27, 2024 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 321.50 USD/ton, down 0.79%; the delivery period for March 2025 is 323.50 USD/ton, down 0.99%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 331.65 USD/ton, up 2.00% and the delivery period for July 2025 is 327.10 USD/ton, up 1.93%.

Robusta coffee traded on the ICE Futures Europe (London exchange) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 and closes at 01:30 (next day), Vietnam time.

According to statistics from the Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV), domestic coffee prices reached VND134,400/kg on April 30, the highest price in history up to now. Robusta coffee prices on the ICE-EU continuously set new records, typically the price approaching USD5,500/ton in the trading session on September 16. Currently, although Vietnamese coffee prices are not at their historical peak, they still maintain a price of over VND120,000/kg, 2 to 3 times higher than the average of previous years.

Reduced supply has been one of the key factors driving up prices over the past two years. In Vietnam in particular, farmers have abandoned coffee to grow durian, passion fruit, etc., and the prolonged drought in early 2024 due to the impact of the El Nino weather pattern has caused output to continuously decrease over the past four years, leading to a decline in exports.

Moreover, Vietnam is currently the world's largest producer and exporter of Robusta coffee, and the reduction in domestic supply directly affects the ability to ensure a balance between global supply and demand. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) estimates that the global deficit will be around 4.9 million bags of coffee (60kg) in the 2022-2023 crop year.

*Information is for reference only, prices may vary depending on region and locality.

Source: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-289-nguon-cung-ca-phe-thap-hon-nhu-cau-nguoi-ban-co-loi-the-hon-348850.html