Many prospects to achieve growth target of over 8%

Deputy Minister of Finance Do Thanh Trung

Dear Deputy Minister, as previously estimated, Vietnam's GDP growth reached 7.52% in the first 6 months of the year, as officially announced by the General Statistics Office. What do you think about this growth rate?

Initially, at the end of May, we forecasted GDP growth in the second quarter to be around 7.67%, and for the first six months to be around 7.31%. However, when estimating the figures for the end of June, we also forecast that the figure would likely be higher by around 0.2 - 0.3 percentage points. And finally, according to the figures released by the General Statistics Office, GDP growth in the second quarter reached 7.96%, and for the first six months it was 7.52%. Both of these growth rates are close to the growth scenario set out in Resolution No. 154/NQ-CP of the Government .

I think this is a very positive growth rate. Compared to our country, both the GDP growth of the second quarter and the first 6 months are high compared to recent years. In fact, the GDP growth of the first 6 months of this year is the highest compared to the GDP growth rate of the first 6 months of the past 20 years. Compared to the outside world, I think this growth rate is likely to be the highest in ASEAN, among the leading groups in the world and the region.

Furthermore, we also need to put this growth rate in the general context of the global economy. Although at the end of last year, when building the Socio-Economic Development Plan for 2025, we identified 2025 as a year with many difficulties, challenges and unpredictable factors from the outside, in reality, those difficulties and challenges are greater than predicted, coming in droves and extremely unpredictable.

In particular, since the beginning of the second quarter, new developments have continuously emerged, such as armed conflicts in Ukraine, Israel - Iran, tensions between Thailand - Cambodia..., and the US tariff policy... All of these have affected the global investment and business environment and reduced the growth prospects of many economies. However, in the midst of these difficulties, we have still made efforts, persistently implemented many synchronous and effective solutions, and are still determined to bring the economy to a growth rate of over 8% this year. And the result, as seen, is a fairly high growth rate.

Not only GDP growth, many other macroeconomic indicators are also very positive. For example, credit growth has improved, state budget revenue in the first 6 months reached 67.7% of the estimate, up 28.3% over the same period; industrial production, import and export, domestic consumption, public investment disbursement... are all positive. In that context, the macro economy is still stable, inflation is under control, major balances are ensured... All are creating momentum for us to be able to complete the growth target and other socio-economic development targets this year.

In the first half of the year, not only GDP growth, many other macroeconomic indicators also recorded positive results. Photo: Duc Thanh

That means, according to the Deputy Minister, we can completely trust in the ability to achieve the growth target of over 8% in 2025?

It is true that the economy has achieved positive growth in the first half of 2025, but up to this point, we have always determined that achieving the 2025 growth target is a big challenge. To achieve a growth rate of 8% or more, in the last 6 months of the year, we need to grow by 8.4-8.5%. This is a high growth rate in the context of the world economic situation still facing many difficulties and challenges, which can greatly affect Vietnam's socio-economy.

Currently, the geopolitical conflict is still very complicated. The story of US tariffs has not ended. Currently, the deadline for imposing tariffs has been postponed by the US to August 1. We have also reached positive agreements on tariffs with the Donald Trump administration. However, we still have to wait for the final results to be able to calculate the impacts on Vietnam's socio-economy.

Vietnam's commodity exports are therefore still facing significant risks. Not to mention, there are other challenges, such as although consumption has grown positively, there has been no breakthrough, still lower than the target for the whole year (12%), not yet becoming an important driving force contributing to economic growth; although private investment has gradually recovered, it is not yet stable; new growth drivers such as science - technology, digital transformation, financial centers, free trade zones... are in the early stages, needing time to create changes and achieve results...

Despite the difficulties, I believe that in the future, the Vietnamese economy still has many prospects to improve its growth rate through promoting public investment, consumption, and tourism; increasing the contribution of digitalization and high technology to growth, promoting the green transformation process, and taking advantage of the trend of shifting foreign investment flows...

The Deputy Minister just mentioned the issue of promoting public investment. This year, as some experts say, public investment resources have never been so "generous". But the important thing is, how to promote disbursement to thereby boost growth, Deputy Minister?

It is true that this year, the resources for public investment are very large. In addition to the nearly 830,000 billion VND of planned capital for 2025 that the National Assembly has decided since the end of last year, we have additional resources transferred, and the increased budget revenue will also be allocated to projects to promote growth of over 8%. Therefore, the total public investment resources this year could reach nearly 1 million billion VND. If these resources are fully disbursed, it will actively support economic growth.

Currently, after 6 months, public investment disbursement has reached over 268,133 billion VND, reaching 32.46% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister, higher than the same period last year in both percentage (same period last year reached 28.2%) and absolute number (about 80,000 billion VND higher - PV). This disbursement rate is very positive.

However, the Government's target this year is 100% disbursement, so in the second half of the year, we must resolutely remove difficulties and obstacles to promote disbursement, striving to reach about 55% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister by the end of the third quarter.

But when it comes to investment, public investment is only one aspect. The important thing is how to promote investment capital for the development of the whole society. Total social investment capital in the second quarter increased by 10.5% compared to the same period last year, and increased by 9.8% in the first 6 months. However, as I just said above, although private investment has gradually recovered, it is not yet stable and needs to be focused on promoting. The issuance of Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW by the Politburo on private economic development will be a strategic boost.

In addition, I think it is necessary to focus on removing difficulties and obstacles for long-standing and pending projects. Currently, the handling of obstacles for these projects has achieved initial results, but besides thousands of projects that localities are proactively handling, after review, there are still 2,887 pending projects with a total investment value of more than 235 billion USD. This resource being cleared will actively support economic growth, while creating a foundation for the country's growth and development.

From another perspective, I think that to promote growth, we also need synchronous and effective coordination of fiscal and monetary policies. Recently, the Prime Minister issued Official Dispatch 104/CD-TTg on enhancing the effectiveness of monetary and fiscal policy management. Accordingly, the Prime Minister directed the State Bank to proactively, flexibly, promptly and effectively manage monetary policy; the Ministry of Finance presides over and coordinates with relevant agencies to continue to manage a reasonable, focused and key expansionary fiscal policy, closely coordinating, harmonizing and effectively with monetary policy and other macroeconomic policies.

Over the past years, monetary and fiscal policies have been managed flexibly and effectively, contributing significantly to promoting economic growth. This year, I believe that both monetary and fiscal policies will continue to assert their roles.

This year, to boost growth, the Government has for the first time implemented the “growth contract” to localities. This is proving effective, but Mr. Deputy Minister, since July 1, localities have been reorganized. So how will the “growth contract” be implemented in the future?

This year, there is a new point that the Government assigns GRDP growth targets to each locality. In carrying out the assigned tasks, the localities have made great efforts and determination in implementing tasks and solutions to promote growth. I think the results achieved are positive. In the second quarter of 2025, 41 localities (before the merger) achieved higher growth rates than the first quarter. In the first 6 months, 30 localities had GRDP growth rates of over 8%, of which some localities grew over 10%. The key localities basically all achieved growth rates of 8% or more.

To promote growth, as well as to implement and monitor and evaluate localities after the merger, the Ministry of Finance proposed and was then assigned by the Prime Minister to preside over and coordinate with localities to develop and submit to the Government an adjustment to Resolution No. 25/NQ-CP, assigning the GRDP growth target for 2025 to 34 localities after the merger. We are making efforts to carry out this task.

It can be said that since July 1, we have “reorganized the country”, from 63 provinces and cities down to 34 provinces and cities, and at the same time applied the two-tier local government model, which is a historic step of strategic significance, opening up great opportunities for stronger development of the country, of the economy, including each locality. This not only contributes to the economy achieving a growth rate of over 8% this year, but also creates a foundation for double-digit growth in the coming period.

So, to promote economic growth, what solutions do we need to focus on, Deputy Minister?

We have mentioned many tasks and solutions, from renewing traditional driving forces, promoting new growth drivers, then reforming institutions, removing difficulties for production and business, improving the investment environment, continuing to maintain macroeconomic stability... The important thing now is how to implement these solutions resolutely, synchronously and effectively, including medium and long-term solutions, such as the "four pillars", 3 strategic breakthroughs...

Along with that, in the immediate future, continue to focus on negotiating tariffs with the US. And very importantly, closely monitor the international and regional situation to have timely policy responses. Domestically, closely monitor the activities of the two-level government, as well as the implementation of regulations on decentralization and delegation of power, promptly remove difficulties, and ensure that there are no interruptions in administrative procedures, investment and business activities, etc.

In my opinion, these are the important solutions that need to be implemented to promote economic growth this year, as well as to create a foundation for the upcoming development period.

Source: https://baodautu.vn/nhieu-trien-vong-de-dat-muc-tieu-tang-truong-tren-8-d326336.html