The Government has just reported to the National Assembly on the public debt situation in 2024. Accordingly, the operator said that the debt indicators by the end of this year are within the ceiling limit and the safety warning threshold decided by the National Assembly.
Specifically, public debt is estimated at about 36-37% of GDP, equivalent to 2023. With the 7% growth scenario as targeted by the Government this year, GDP in 2024 will be about 460 billion USD.
Thus, public debt is about 165-170 billion USD, or 4-4.1 million billion VND. This level increased by about 100,000-200,000 billion VND in absolute value compared to last year.
In addition, government debt is 33-34% of GDP; the country's foreign debt is about 32-33% of GDP, much lower than the ceiling of 50%. Foreign debt repayments this year account for about 8-9% of export turnover of goods and services. This number is also within the limit allowed by the National Assembly (25%).
According to the report, 76% of government debt comes from domestic sources, mainly bonds. Currently, insurance companies, Vietnam Social Security, investment funds and financial companies hold 62.5% of total outstanding government bonds. The remainder is held by commercial banks, securities companies, investment funds and other investors.
Foreign creditors are mainly multilateral and bilateral development partners such as the World Bank, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Japan and South Korea...
This year, the Prime Minister assigned a target of mobilizing 670,679 billion VND in loans. This amount is mainly borrowed to balance the central budget (659,934 billion VND). The loan structure is mainly domestic, accounting for 95% of the plan, equivalent to 639,399 billion VND. ODA loans and incentives from foreign donors are about 31,280 billion.
The Government assesses and manages public debt closely following the National Assembly's resolution, ensuring debt safety. Along with that, the Government debt structure has improved positively by the end of this year. Government-guaranteed debt is strictly managed, with the proportion decreasing from 3.8% of GDP in 2021 to 2-3% of GDP this year.
Debt repayment is fully implemented as committed, within the approved budget. The direct debt obligation ratio of the Government to budget revenue is about 21-22%.
"A proactive debt management strategy helps reduce liquidity risks as well as dependence on external funding sources. A gradual reduction in foreign currency debt helps reduce exchange rate risks," the report said.
However, the Government acknowledges that the negotiation and signing of foreign loan agreements is slower. Foreign borrowing costs are higher than the domestic average and pose risks of exchange rate fluctuations. Disbursement of public investment capital from foreign loans is low.
The reason is that difficulties related to public investment and bidding have not been thoroughly resolved. In addition, legal problems are the inability to reach a compromise with the lender, leading to the implementation of the loan agreement not being on schedule.
To overcome this situation, the Government said it will continue to implement solutions to increase disbursement of public investment capital, as well as flexibly use tools to achieve the goal of mobilizing sufficient domestic and foreign capital sources.
In 2025, the Government forecasts public debt at 36-37% of GDP, government debt at 34-35%, foreign debt at 33-34%, and the Government's direct debt repayment obligations compared to budget revenue at about 24%.
TB (according to VnExpress)Source: https://baohaiduong.vn/no-cong-nam-2024-du-kien-hon-4-trieu-ty-dong-395559.html
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