Trump leads Biden in most swing states in new poll

A new survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena College released on November 5 shows that Mr. Trump leads Mr. Biden in the states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania, while the incumbent president leads in the state of Wisconsin.

Former President Trump campaigned in Florida on November 4.

While some states are considered Democratic or Republican strongholds, the states surveyed above are all decisive unknowns in the US presidential election season. In 2020, Mr. Biden defeated Mr. Trump in all six of those states.

The new poll also shows the Republican candidate leading by an average of 48% to 44% for the Democratic candidate. The poll's margin of error ranges from 4.4 to 4.8 points.

Two-thirds of respondents said the United States is headed in the wrong direction, and majorities of people across all ages said the current administration’s policies are hurting them. Nearly three-quarters (71%) of respondents said the current occupant of the White House is too old to be effective.

This is a hypothetical survey because the party polls have not yet taken place. Although both Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden are leading among their party's other candidates, they are still not technically certain to be the party's nominee for the decisive election.

"Predictions a year in advance tend to be a little different a year later. Don't believe them. Gallup predicted President Obama would lose by 8 points, but he won easily a year later," said Kevin Munoz, a spokesman for President Biden's re-election campaign, in a statement about the new poll. Munoz referred to Barack Obama's 2012 victory over Republican Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, Democratic Senator Richard Blumenthal expressed concern about the poll's results but noted that the election was not imminent.

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