Europe's largest 'super volcano' could erupt dangerously

Sputnik cited a recent study by the Italian Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology in collaboration with the University College London (UK), the peak of the "super volcano" Campi Flegrei located right below a densely populated area with about 500,000 people living is about to erupt again since 1538. Scientists warn that such an event could have catastrophic consequences.

The study used a volcanic rifting model to explain the earthquake and ground-uplift activity in the area. There have been tens of thousands of earthquakes around the Campi Flegrei volcano (located near Naples) and the town of Pozzuoli, which sits atop Campi Flegrei, has been uplifted by about 4 metres as a result of the seismic activity.

A corner of Pozzuoli city seen from above. (Photo: Coland)

Researchers point out that the weakening of the crust around the Campi Flegrei volcano is “making an eruption more likely”.

The Campi Flegrei volcano itself has been giving off "signals" that it is about to become active again for over 70 years, including times when it seemed like it was about to erupt again, such as in the 1950s, 1970s and 1980s.

“Our new research confirms that Campi Flegrei is getting closer to rupturing,” said lead author Professor Christopher Kilburn of University College London. “However, this does not mean that it is about to erupt.”

“The fault can open a crack through the Earth's crust, but the lava still needs to be pushed into the right place for an eruption to occur,” added Professor Kilburn.

These findings are also agreed by Dr Nicola Alessandro Pino of the Vesuvius Observatory, as reports suggest the crust around Campi Flegrei is weakening.

Illustration of the location of Campi Flegrei volcano and its affected area.

There are currently about 500,000 people living in the depression that forms the summit of Campi Flegrei volcano and another 1.5 million people are thought to live within the radius of a potential eruption.

Professor Kilburn said the study, described as “the first of its kind to predict rupture at an active volcano”, marked “a step change in our goal to improve the forecasting of volcanic eruptions worldwide .”

“The first time we used the model was in 2017 and since then Campi Flegrei has been behaving as we predicted, with an increasing number of small earthquakes indicating pressure from below,” the Italian scientist stressed.

Scientists will now have to adjust their procedures to estimate the probability of new routes opening up for lava or gas flows to reach the surface, according to Professor Kilburn.

Tra Khanh (Source: Sputnik)

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