US election betting market booms, bets lean towards Trump

Platforms offering betting on who will become the next US president are booming with just days left until the election.

Betting odds on platforms like Polymarket and Betfair show that many voters believe Mr Trump will become the next president of the United States - Photo: ABC

As the US presidential election on November 5 is approaching, the gambling market in this country is hotter than ever with the emergence of platforms specializing in providing betting services on who will win the race to the White House.

Betting platforms are booming

The US election betting market is booming with the participation of major platforms such as Betfair, Kalshi and Polymarket. Earlier this month, a US federal appeals court gave Kalshi the green light to provide a legal election betting platform exclusively for US citizens. Since then, the platform has attracted more than $100 million in election-related bets. Kalshi quickly climbed to the 7th position in the list of top free apps downloaded on Apple's App Store on the morning of October 29 (local time), even topping the free finance app category, according to Business Insider . Polymarket, another platform that also caters to the "gambling" needs during the election, has also seen a surge in transaction volume this year. Figures show that nearly $2 billion was wagered on Polymarket in October, about four times the $533 million recorded in September and more than 10 times the $39 million in April. Before 2024, monthly trading volume on Polymarket typically hovered around $20 million.

Polymarket posters appear on American streets while President Joe Biden is still running for election - Photo: BLOOMBERG

Leaning towards Mr. Trump

According to Bloomberg News on October 29, while traditional opinion polls still show a close race between the two candidates representing the two parties, betting markets have recently leaned heavily towards Democratic candidate Donald Trump, pushing his winning odds to 60% or higher. As of the afternoon of October 28, the odds for Mr. Trump to win the upcoming election on Polymarket had risen to 66%. On other betting platforms such as Betfair and Odds Shark, the Republican candidate also showed higher betting odds in the battleground states of Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona - states that decided the outcome of the 2020 election.

While Harris has not had as much of a lead as her opponent in this red-black playground, she has still shown her appeal in other battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan, although the gap between the two is very close. These states are considered important to the Democratic Party, but Ms. Harris's support level here is currently being tested by the influence of Mr. Trump's campaign and recent fluctuations in surveys.

Can't conclude which prediction is better yet

Many believe that betting odds can be more accurate than traditional polls because they are based on the actual behavior of bettors. “One thing that betting sites have that traditional polls don’t is interaction between individuals in the market,” said Harry Crane, a statistician at Rutgers University. According to him, the constant interaction between individuals through buying and selling stocks creates a flexible and fast price adjustment mechanism, allowing the platforms to more accurately reflect voters’ psychology and expectations about the election results. Billionaire Elon Musk has also repeatedly praised these betting platforms, saying that they are “more accurate than polls, because real money is involved.” In general, when traditional polls do not show a clear difference, voters may want to look for different prediction methods. But so far, there is no hard evidence that odds from betting platforms are more accurate than traditional polls, so voters should be cautious when considering data from both sources before making judgments about the upcoming election results, the New York Times concluded.

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