Cash flow differentiation
At the end of the trading week from November 17 to November 21, the market recorded positive signs of recovery after breaking the VN-Index's downward streak that lasted since October. Accordingly, the index has shifted to an accumulation state with sessions fluctuating within a narrow range.
Mr. Phan Tan Nhat, Head of Analysis Group of Saigon- Hanoi Securities Company (SHS), assessed that last week, VN-Index had 5 sessions of fluctuations in the range of 1,635-1,660 points. Despite selling pressure when the index headed towards the upper resistance zone, VN-Index still increased by 1.19% to 1,654.93 points at the end of the week, holding firmly above the support level around 1,640 points.
The main driving force helping the market maintain its momentum comes from the large-cap group, especially the group of stocks in the VN30 basket. Mr. Nhat also added that the VN30 ended the week up 1.51% to 1,899.89 points, approaching the psychological resistance of 1,900 points, creating a positive spillover effect on the general index.
However, the market movements are not completely in sync, as the market breadth is still inclined towards correction and deep differentiation. Meanwhile, money flows to forgotten or defensive stocks, while market stocks are under selling pressure.
Mr. Nguyen Tan Phong, analyst of Pinetree Securities Company, commented that during the past 2 weeks of recovery, cash flow has poured heavily into oil and gas, technology and industrial real estate stocks. On the contrary, banking, securities and real estate stocks continue to be in a gloomy situation.
Sharing the same view on this differentiation, the SHS representative pointed out that strong adjustment pressure appeared in the groups of securities, fertilizers, chemicals... Besides, the rare bright spot belonged to the small-cap technology-telecommunications group (benefiting from the divestment information of the VNPT Post and Telecommunications Group) and some real estate, seafood, and livestock codes had their own stories.
Low liquidity and pressure from foreign investors
One of the biggest bottlenecks at present is liquidity. According to data from SHS, market liquidity, although slightly increased by 6.8% compared to last week, is still low. The average volume per session on the HoSE floor is only about 700 million shares, equivalent to 70% of the average level in October.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Tan Phong called this a "recovery in doubt" period. He explained that the market liquidity is extremely low due to lack of supply, meaning that the outside money is hesitant to buy at the bottom, while the sellers are waiting for a higher price to cut losses.
On the other hand, foreign capital flows continue to be a variable that needs to be closely monitored. Specifically, foreign investors had their 17th consecutive week of net selling with a value of nearly VND1,900 billion on the HoSE.
However, Mr. Phan Tan Nhat expects this pressure to cool down soon: "We can expect foreign investors to stop their net selling streak when their ownership ratio is currently only about 15.08%."
Based on technical and fundamental analysis data, SHS representatives forecast that VN-Index will continue its accumulation recovery phase above the support zone of 1,640 points (corresponding to the 20-day moving average), expecting to move towards resistance around 1,700 points (the old peak zone of August-September 2025).
Accordingly, Mr. Phan Tan Nhat recommends that investors need to carefully evaluate based on the business plan and growth prospects of 2026 before considering allocation and increasing the proportion. Investment targets should be aimed at codes with good fundamentals, leading in strategic fields, with valuations lower than the market average and expected to receive new capital flows from investment funds when the market is upgraded.
Regarding the macro context, experts from Pinetree warn of potential risks from the international and domestic markets. With the negative developments of the international stock market, concerns about the AI bubble, the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (FED) keeping interest rates unchanged or the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising interest rates in December. Combined with the fact that real estate lending rates at some domestic commercial banks are about to increase again, there is a high probability that the VN-Index needs to find a second bottom to open a more sustainable growth period.
Mr. Nguyen Tan Phong gave a cautious scenario: "In essence, VN-Index is still in a sideways trend around the 1,580-1,680 point range. If early next week, the market has a trading session with high liquidity but VN-Index cannot surpass the resistance zone of 1,670-1,680 points, there is a high probability that the index will create a short-term peak and reverse down to retest the bottom zone of 1,580 points."
Along with that, Mr. Phong emphasized that investors should not disburse at the present time to avoid the risk of falling into the price increase trap, and need to patiently wait for the VN-Index to confirm the trend of surpassing 1,680 points with large liquidity. In particular, investors should limit bottom fishing in the banking, securities, and real estate sectors, because these groups have not yet escaped the downtrend and need more time to accumulate.
According to experts, the stock market is in a low-information and liquidity zone. This is the right time for investors to restructure their portfolios to prioritize quality and long-term growth prospects.
According to VNASource: https://baohaiphong.vn/thi-truong-chung-khoan-truoc-nguong-can-1-700-diem-527475.html
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