I. Overview of the economy
In the context of declining external demand, moderate inflation, positive performance of private consumption and domestic investment, and maintained momentum of economic activity and employment in the third quarter, the Government has revised up its 2025 GDP growth forecast to 2.7%.
According to the Bank of Spain, third-quarter indicators show that the economy is maintaining strong growth and estimates GDP growth on a quarterly basis will be between 0.6% and 0.7%. However, the bank continues to forecast a slowdown in 2026 with GDP growth of 1.8%. The labor market continues to show remarkable strength with significant job creation. This situation contributes to a reduction in the unemployment rate in 2025 and also in 2026.
Employment recovered in the second quarter thanks to the private sector while the number of social security participants maintained its growth rate in August. The labor market showed positive results in the second quarter with an acceleration in the number of employed people. This employment recovery was driven by the private sector and also contributed to a significant reduction in the unemployment rate. However, the negative point comes from the number of hours worked, which slowed down and even decreased compared to the same period last year. Meanwhile, the first data for the third quarter show that job creation continued at a good pace with a growth of 2.3% compared to the same period last year in July and August. The momentum of job growth slowed slightly in the third quarter. According to estimates by the Spanish Confederation of Employers (CEOE), the real participation rate, after adjusting for seasonal effects, was more than a tenth lower than in the first and second quarters.
Wages per employee and unit labor costs continued to increase significantly. Wages per employee increased by 3.8% year-on-year, three-tenths of a percentage point lower than the previous quarter. However, unit labor costs continued to increase, reaching 4.5% year-on-year, compared with 4.1% previously. According to the latest labor market data for August, a seasonally unfavorable month, the number of social security participants decreased by 199,300, representing a month-on-month change of -0.9%, in line with the usual monthly rate for this month in previous years.
Core inflation, although rising slightly to 2.4% in the third quarter, reflected a moderate underlying price trend. However, rising energy prices pushed headline inflation to 2.7% in August, the same level as in July. The increase in inflation in recent months was due to a recovery in energy prices from the decline in the first half of the year and a stronger increase in prices of unprocessed food. In particular, energy prices returned to positive territory after a decline in the second quarter (3.4% in August, compared to -2.7% in May), mainly due to a smaller fall in fuel and lubricant prices and an increase in prices of natural gas and other liquefied hydrocarbons, such as butane. Furthermore, electricity prices have recovered since July due to the turning point effect of the reduction of VAT to 10% in July 2024 and are now at 21%.
Meanwhile, prices of unprocessed food recorded a 1.4% year-on-year decline to 5.8% from 7.2% the previous month, although it remained the highest inflation component in the basket.
The increase in service prices pushed up year-on-year growth to 3.5% while industrial prices excluding energy products also edged up slightly year-on-year to 0.7% and processed food, beverages and tobacco increased by 1.4%.
Forecasts for the rest of 2025 suggest that inflation could decline in the final months of the year, bringing the annual average down to around 2.5%. This downward trend would continue into the first half of 2026, bringing inflation slightly below 2.0%, meaning the 2026 average would be lower than the 2025 average.
Updated Spanish macroeconomic indicators according to CEOE's September 2025 forecast for 2025 and 2026 show that the indicators do not differ significantly from the forecasts of previous months:
Index | Quarter III/2025 compared to Quarter II/2025 | Quarter III/2025 compared to Quarter III/2024 |
Vietnam's exports to Spain | 3.94% | -0.84% |
Vietnam's imports from Spain | -3.49% | 2.17% |
Domestic demand was the main driver of economic growth, with a quarterly growth of 1.2%. This was supported by a 1.2% quarterly and 3.3% annual increase in household consumption, while Gross Fixed Capital Formation also increased significantly, with a 1.7% quarterly and 7.6% year-on-year increase. The strong recovery in domestic demand reflects consumer and business confidence in the economic outlook, providing a solid foundation for sustainable growth.
Overall, the Spanish economy in the third quarter of 2025 showed a clear two-way development. Strong domestic demand with impressive growth in consumption and investment has partly compensated for the weakness in import and export activities. However, the stagnation of goods exports, the increasing trade deficit and the slightly increased unemployment rate remain challenges and the short-term outlook remains positive but adjustments are needed to move towards sustainable growth.
II. Vietnam - Spain import and export situation
1/General import and export situation of Spain
Import-export activities in the third quarter of 2025 were a negative point of the economy, contributing -0.6% quarterly and -0.8% yearly to GDP growth. The imbalance in import-export became evident when total import turnover of goods and services increased by 6.1% compared to the same period last year while total export turnover increased by only 3.2%.
Spain's total exports in the third quarter are estimated at 91.38 billion euros, with July reaching 34.42 billion euros (actual), August reaching 24.35 billion euros (actual) and September approximately 32.61 billion euros (estimated). Total imports in the third quarter are estimated at 105.78 billion euros, with July reaching 38.43 billion euros (actual), August reaching 30.33 billion euros (actual) and September approximately 37.02 billion euros (estimated). The trade deficit in the third quarter was 14.40 billion euros. In the first 9 months of 2025, the deficit reached 39.50 billion euros. This increase in the deficit comes from a non-energy deficit of about 15.00 billion euros and an energy deficit of about 24.5 billion euros (accounting for more than 60% of the total deficit).
The tourism and services sector, in particular, remains dynamic and is a bright spot in the export picture. The surplus in the tourism services balance increased to 4.3% of GDP in August, up from 4.2% last year, reflecting Spain's attractiveness to international tourists.
2/ Vietnam - Spain bilateral trade relations
In the first 10 months of 2025, bilateral trade turnover between Vietnam and Spain continued to grow. Vietnam's exports to Spain reached 3.47 billion USD. Vietnam's imports from Spain increased more strongly, reaching 687.08 million USD. This increase mainly came from the group of machinery, equipment, pharmaceuticals, chemical products and processed foods. Total two-way trade turnover between the two countries reached 4.17 billion USD, an increase of 4.51% compared to the first 10 months of 2024.
Based on merchandise trade data (Q3 2025), bilateral trade relations between Vietnam and Spain during the reporting period showed mixed trends and clear differentiation in commodity structure. Vietnam's total exports to Spain recorded a slight decrease of -0.84% compared to the same period last year, while Vietnam's total imports from Spain increased by 2.17% over the same period last year.
Index | Quarter III/2025 compared to Quarter II/2025 | Quarter III/2025 compared to Quarter III/2024 |
Vietnam's exports to Spain | 3.94% | -0.84% |
Vietnam's imports from Spain | -3.49% | 2.17% |
On the export side, growth was led by the technology and mechanical products group: Computers, electronic products and components increased sharply by 85.27% over the same period last year and means of transport and spare parts increased by 53.32% over the same period last year. However, the growth momentum was held back by the decline of raw materials and heavy industry, typically iron and steel of all kinds decreased by -62.61% and raw materials for textiles, garments, leather and footwear decreased by -57.43% over the same period last year.
On the other hand, Vietnam's imports from Spain were driven by a surge in technology products with computers, electronic products and components increasing by 298.33% along with an increase in imports of animal feed and raw materials by 62.89%. This growth occurred despite a sharp decline in pharmaceutical raw materials (-76.06%) and plastic raw materials (-69.73%) compared to the same period last year. Overall, the third quarter of 2025 reflects a structural shift in bilateral trade, in which technology and consumer goods recovered strongly but the raw material supply chain is undergoing major adjustments and is unstable.
- Vietnam - Spain bilateral import and export:
Export data by item in the third quarter of 2025
Item | Q2/2025 | Q3/2025 | Q3/2024 | Comparison of QIII and QII/2025 | Compare Q3/2025 and Q3/2024 |
Seafood products | 19,641,647 | 24,763,497 | 21,550,488 | 26.08% | 14.91% |
Cashew | 21,461,724 | 18,462,164 | 22,017,851 | -13.98% | -16.15% |
Coffee | 198,996,495 | 114,964,128 | 98,892,034 | -42.23% | 16.25% |
Pepper | 5,381,578 | 4,416,079 | 5,107,564 | -17.94% | -13.54% |
Rice | 615,200 | 515,176 | 512,904 | -16.26% | 0.44% |
Plastic products | 11,573,625 | 11,078,391 | 7,351,271 | -4.28% | 50.70% |
Rubber | 4,091,828 | 6,626,380 | 7,200,196 | 61.94% | -7.97% |
Rubber products | 2,435,057 | 2,945,524 | 3,451,458 | 20.96% | -14.66% |
Handbags, wallets, suitcases, hats, umbrellas | 16,608,492 | 14,682,949 | 16,850,510 | -11.59% | -12.86% |
Rattan, bamboo, sedge and carpet products | 10,664,176 | 7,615,069 | 7,523,361 | -28.59% | 1.22% |
Wood and wood products | 21,065,230 | 12,503,032 | 14,325,262 | -40.65% | -12.72% |
Textiles and garments | 137,594,392 | 208,602,942 | 202,661,643 | 51.61% | 2.93% |
Shoes of all kinds | 158,032,520 | 122,835,966 | 126,827,754 | -22.27% | -3.15% |
Textile, garment, leather and footwear materials | 1,184,293 | 697,373 | 1,638,193 | -41.11% | -57.43% |
Ceramic products | 769,532 | 715,902 | 586,763 | -6.97% | 22.01% |
Precious stones, precious metals and products | 669,246 | 944,172 | 711,164 | 41.08% | 32.76% |
Iron and steel of all kinds | 77,345,750 | 68,742,236 | 183,830,488 | -11.12% | -62.61% |
Iron and steel products | 8,691,976 | 12,844,957 | 8,145,978 | 47.78% | 57.68% |
Computers, electronic products and components | 55,920,613 | 77,918,771 | 42,057,525 | 39.34% | 85.27% |
Phones of all kinds and accessories | 88,466,612 | 133,667,794 | 115,857,755 | 51.09% | 15.37% |
Other machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts | 40,825,364 | 53,502,446 | 45,416,267 | 31.05% | 17.80% |
Vehicles and spare parts | 16,529,164 | 25,985,311 | 16,948,722 | 57.21% | 53.32% |
Toys, sporting goods and parts | 10,420,349 | 15,161,682 | 28,710,054 | 45.50% | -47.19% |
Data by imported goods in the third quarter of 2025
Item | Q2/2025 | Q3/2025 | Q3/2024 | Comparison of QIII and QII/2025 | Compare Q3/2025 and Q3/2024 |
Milk and dairy products | 4,005,090 | 4,172,296 | 2,917,392 | 4.17% | 43.01% |
Other food preparations | 4,699,843 | 4,772,564 | 5,856,343 | 1.55% | -18.51% |
Animal feed and raw materials | 11,759,724 | 13,628,142 | 8,366,344 | 15.89% | 62.89% |
Chemicals | 1,746,201 | 2,715,964 | 2,029,124 | 55.54% | 33.85% |
Chemical products | 17,150,644 | 16,909,994 | 21,725,871 | -1.40% | -22.17% |
Pharmaceutical raw materials | 402,472 | 917,234 | 3,831,167 | 127.90% | -76.06% |
Pharmaceuticals | 35,100,962 | 38,200,687 | 39,451,860 | 8.83% | -3.17% |
Raw plastic | 15,005,200 | 5,335,259 | 17,627,359 | -64.44% | -69.73% |
Plastic products | 3,497,356 | 4,064,574 | 2,977,691 | 16.22% | 36.50% |
Textile, garment, leather and footwear materials | 2,288,753 | 1,648,043 | 1,604,635 | -27.99% | 2.71% |
Iron and steel of all kinds | 1,209,769 | 689,283 | 752,843 | -43.02% | -8.44% |
Iron and steel products | 4,363,273 | 1,664,047 | 2,491,600 | -61.86% | -33.21% |
Computers, electronic products and components | 3,257,861 | 17,797,860 | 4,468,074 | 446.31% | 298.33% |
Household electrical appliances and components | 2,481,579 | 1,199,785 | 3,208,932 | -51.65% | -62.61% |
Other machinery, equipment, tools and spare parts | 19,908,236 | 21,256,643 | 17,835,165 | 6.77% | 19.18% |
Auto parts and components | 1,276,727 | 1,139,361 | 1,353,621 | -10.76% | -15.83% |
At the end of October, Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade of Vietnam Phan Thi Thang and Secretary of State for Trade, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Enterprise of Spain Amparo López Senovilla co-chaired the First Meeting of the Vietnam - Spain Joint Committee on Economic, Trade and Investment Cooperation in Madrid. This is an important event marking the first time the two sides have established a regular dialogue mechanism to review and discuss cooperation activities and propose measures to remove obstacles as well as identify priorities for implementation to promote comprehensive cooperation in all economic, trade and investment fields.
III. Update legal regulations
In the third quarter of 2025, Spain introduced a number of notable policy regulations that impact international trade as follows:
Decree 863/2025 of September 30 amending Decree 348/2001 of April 4 regulating the processing, marketing and import of food products and food ingredients treated with ionizing radiation.
Decree 812/2025 dated September 16 stipulates that the Ministry of Industry and Tourism will directly provide subsidies to the industry in the 2025 financial year.
Decree 767/2025 dated September 2 amending Decree 1157/2021 dated December 28 regulating industrially produced veterinary drugs and Decree 666/2023 dated July 18 regulating the distribution, prescription, dispensing and use of veterinary drugs.
Decree 680/2025 dated July 29 regulating the granting of direct subsidies in the field of industrial property by the Ministry of Industry and Tourism in the 2025 budget year.
Decree 683/2025 of 29 July provides for some temporary exceptions regarding compliance with the basic provisions governing support programmes for the fruit, vegetable and wine sector of the Common Agricultural Policy, and amends several decrees relating to the fruit, vegetable and viticulture sector within the framework of the Strategic Plan for the CAP 2023-2027 in Spain.
Decree APA/775/2025 of 15 July amending Annexes I, II bis and II quarter of Decree 929/1995 of 9 June approving the Technical Regulations on the Control and Certification of Fruit Seedlings.
Decree ECM/751/2025 of July 7 regulating the guarantee of import and export certificates in international trade activities for agricultural and food products.
Decree 562/2025 of 1 July on control measures and other official activities carried out on the agri-food chain and related activities.
Decree 564/2025 of 1 July amends Decree 861/2018 of 13 July establishing basic regulations on mandatory declaration in the olive oil and edible olive sector and amends Decree 772/2017 of 28 July regulating the potential for wine production.
IV. Trade and investment promotion events
The Vietnam - Spain Business Dialogue on the occasion of the 1st Meeting of the Vietnam - Spain Economic, Trade and Investment Cooperation Committee held on October 29, chaired by Deputy Minister of Industry and Trade Phan Thi Thang, in coordination with representatives of the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Enterprise and the Spanish Chamber of Commerce, attracted a large number of local businesses to attend.
List of international exhibitions in Spain from October to December 2025:
Event name | Location | Estimated time | Contact information (website) |
-Global Fruit and Vegetable Fair (Fruit Attraction 2025) | Madrid Exhibition Center (ifema) | September 30 - October 2, 2025 | FRUIT ATTRACTION 2025 | Fruit and Vegetable Sector Fair |
-Logistics and automation fair | Madrid Exhibition Center (ifema) | October 15-16, 2025 | Logistics & Automation 2024 | IFEMA MADRID |
-European Container Transport Fair | Barcelona Exhibition Centre (Fira) | October 21-23, 2025 | Intermodal Europe - The Leading Container Shipping Event |
-Automobile manufacturing fair | Madrid Exhibition Center (ifema) | October 21-22, 2025 | Automotive Manufacturing Meetings Madrid 2025 | IFEMA MADRID |
-Barcelona Premium Food and Beverage Fair | Barcelona Exhibition Centre (Fira) | November 3-5, 2025 | Gastronomic Forum Barcelona | The biggest gastronomic event of the year |
-Green Economic Forum | Barcelona Exhibition Centre (Fira) | November 4-6, 2025 | Tomorrow.Blue Economy World Congress | TBEWC 4 – 6 NOV 2025 |
-World Smart City Forum | Barcelona Exhibition Centre (Fira) | November 4-6, 2025 | Smart City Expo World Congress | SCEWC 4 - 6 NOV 2025 |
- SIMO 2025 Education Fair | Madrid Exhibition Center (ifema) | November 19-21, 2025 | SIMO EDUCATION 2024 | International Technology and Education Exhibition |
-Mechanical and refrigeration fair | Madrid Exhibition Center (ifema) | November 18-20, 2025 | C&R 2025 | Air conditioning, ventilation and heating fair |
-Electrical and Electronic Industrial Solutions Fair | Madrid Exhibition Center (ifema) | November 18-20, 2025 | MATELEC 2025 | Electrical and Electronic Industry Solutions Fair. |
Source: https://moit.gov.vn/tin-tuc/tong-hop-tinh-hinh-kinh-te-cong-nghiep-va-thuong-mai-tay-ban-nha-quy-iii-2025.html
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