Commodity Market June 20: Energy Market Continues to...

For the industrial raw materials group, at the end of yesterday's trading session, many items on the industrial raw materials market temporarily stopped trading due to the Juneteenth holiday in the US market. In particular, the price of Robusta coffee continued to decrease slightly by 0.1%, falling to 3,887 USD/ton. In general, since the beginning of the week, this item has lost nearly 10% of its value due to great pressure from the prospect of abundant supply from major producing countries. In addition, impressive export growth figures of this type of coffee in other countries have also put pressure on many sessions of deep price declines.

According to data from Cecafe as of June 13, Brazil's Robusta coffee exports reached 173,600 bags, a sharp increase of 275% compared to May. It is forecasted that the country's coffee exports in June will reach about 2.7 million bags, of which Robusta accounts for 20%. Notably, Robusta export output in June is expected to reach 500,000 bags, exceeding the total export volume in the first 5 months of the year and creating a big surprise in the market.

In addition, data from the Indonesian government shows that the country's coffee exports in the first four months of the year, mainly Robusta, increased sharply by 122.5% to 127,000 tons. Meanwhile, Vietnam's Robusta coffee exports also recorded impressive growth, with exports reaching about 1.12 million tons in the eight months of the 2024-2025 crop year, up 61% over the same period last year.

The weather forecast for Espírito Santo state, Brazil’s largest Robusta coffee growing region, shows that the weather risk is currently not a major concern. The average temperature is currently around 19°C, lower than the long-term average of 21°C. Meanwhile, the average rainfall over the past seven days has been relatively stable at 0.91mm, only slightly below the long-term average of 0.93mm.

In the energy market, according to MXV, the energy market continued to flourish as the upward momentum of oil prices continued to expand in yesterday's trading session, in the context of escalating tensions in the Middle East.

At the end of the trading session, Brent oil price climbed to 78.9 USD/barrel, corresponding to an increase of 2.8%. As for WTI oil traded on the NYMEX floor, it was quite quiet because the floor closed early. At the closing time, WTI oil price stopped at 75.8 USD/barrel, corresponding to an increase of about 0.88%.

Tensions between Israel and Iran have shown no signs of abating, raising the risk of disruptions in energy supplies from Iran and many areas in the Persian Gulf. This development has pushed Brent oil prices close to $80/barrel, with WTI oil prices at times exceeding $77/barrel due to concerns about the possibility of the US military intervention in the region.

In that context, US President Donald Trump has made a statement that he has not made a decision on whether the US will participate in the conflict and will consider and evaluate the situation within the next two weeks. This statement has helped the market to temporarily stabilize, especially when Mr. Trump still leaves open the possibility of resolving tensions through diplomatic negotiations.

Also yesterday, many forecasts were given with new updates on the scenario of high oil prices due to supply disruptions from the Middle East. Goldman Sachs Bank has set a geopolitical risk premium of $10/barrel and believes that oil prices could climb above $90/barrel depending on the level of damage caused by this conflict.

JP Morgan also warned that in the worst case scenario, oil prices could spike to over $120 a barrel. On the other hand, credit rating company Morningstar DBRS said that any sudden price increase would be temporary. Specifically, high oil prices would exacerbate uncertainties in the global economy and oil demand. Therefore, as long as this new conflict in the Middle East subsides, geopolitical risk premiums will fall and oil prices will follow.

Source: https://baodaknong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-20-6-thi-truong-nang-luong-tiep-tuc-khoi-sac-256149.html