Commodity market 12/5: Buying power dominates the market

In the energy market, according to MXV, the energy group led the market's increase as all five commodities closed in the green. Crude oil alone broke the decline of the previous two weeks. Investor sentiment gradually stabilized as attention focused on the results of the trade negotiations between the US and China.

At the end of the trading session on May 9, Brent oil price increased by 4.27%, climbing to 63.91 USD/barrel. Meanwhile, WTI oil price stopped at 61.02 USD/barrel, increasing by 4.68%.

Investors' concerns about excess supply were reinforced in the first trading session of the week when OPEC+ confirmed a sharp increase in production in June. After an hour-long online meeting between eight member countries on Saturday (May 3), the production increase confirmed by the OPEC+ group in June was 411,000 barrels/day, similar to the increase in May. This move caused oil prices to fall sharply in the first trading session of the week due to concerns about a resurgence of oversupply amid a lack of real improvement in global demand.

However, market sentiment turned positive at the end of the week after US President Donald Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a historic bilateral trade deal, keeping the 10% tariff on imports from the UK but removing many barriers for US goods, especially agricultural products, cars, steel and aluminum, to enter the UK market. The agreement has raised investors' expectations for the US-China trade talks in Switzerland on May 10. At the end of the first day of negotiations, President Trump described the meeting as "very good" and "constructive". Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on May 11 that the world's two largest economies had made "significant progress" in the two-day round of negotiations. These signals have created strong momentum for oil prices in the last two sessions of the week.

In addition, the market still recorded certain concerns about gasoline consumption demand in the US. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that although crude oil reserves decreased by 2 million barrels in the week ending May 2, the amount of oil input at oil refineries decreased by 7,000 barrels/day, while gasoline inventories increased by 188,000 barrels - a development contrary to the summer peak, when gasoline demand usually increases sharply.

Normally, this time of year would see a sharp increase in gasoline demand due to the travel needs of Americans. The latest figures from the EIA are raising concerns about the outlook for retail gasoline consumption in the coming time, especially in the context of important economic indicators in the US, notably GDP growth in the first quarter, continuing to send negative signals. This is also a factor that is holding back the recovery of oil prices this week.

As for agricultural prices, according to MXV, the soybean market closed the past trading week with a slight decrease of 0.59% to 386 USD/ton, reflecting the tug of war between conflicting fundamental factors and cautious investor sentiment ahead of a series of important upcoming events. The price decline was mainly driven by expectations of a favorable US crop and the prospect of abundant global supplies. However, some supportive factors from exports and trade expectations helped limit the price decline.

Forecast models show the Midwest entering a warm, dry period, ideal for accelerating soybean and corn plantings. Soybean plantings in the U.S. have reached 30% of the projected area, ahead of the five-year average, according to the latest USDA data, raising expectations for a bumper crop.

Supply prospects from South America are also adding to the pressure. Brazilian farmers are forecast to expand their plantings further in 2025-26, following a record 172 million-tonne crop that just ended. Although Argentina’s harvest has been slower than average due to rain and high humidity, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange has raised its production forecast for the country due to better-than-expected yields. These factors have raised expectations that global supplies will remain high this year.

However, steady U.S. soybean exports have helped the market maintain a relative balance, with sales reaching nearly 380,000 tons in the week ending May 1, equivalent to 96% of the USDA’s annual target. In addition, sales of 345,000 tons of new-crop soybeans to Pakistan on two consecutive days were a positive sign, partly offsetting the slowdown in imports from China.

Source: https://baodaknong.vn/thi-truong-hang-hoa-5-12-luc-mua-ap-dao-tren-thi-truong-252251.html