Yen exchange rate forecast to narrow, USD price towards fourth weekly increase

How much is 1 USD in VND today?

State Bank USD exchange rate at 24,036 VND

Vietcombank USD exchange rate is currently at 24,395 VND - 24,765 VND (buy - sell).

Euro exchange rate is currently at 25,979 VND - 27,405 VND (buy - sell).

The current Japanese Yen exchange rate is 161.55 VND - 170.99 VND (buy - sell).

The current British Pound exchange rate is 30,439 VND - 31,734 VND (buy - sell).

Today's Yuan exchange rate is at 3,360 VND - 3,503 VND (buy - sell).

USD price today

The US Dollar Index (DXY) measures the greenback's fluctuations against six major currencies (EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD, SEK, CHF), recording at 103.41 points.

Recent US inflation data could be the basis for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in the middle of the year. The US dollar recorded its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The US dollar index was last down 0.1% at 103.41.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.2% in December 2023. The PCE price index rose 2.6%. Those figures were in line with market consensus expectations.

“At this point, the market should not be worried about rising inflation, regardless of the angle,” said Jeff Klingelhofer, investment strategist at Thornburg Investment Management. “Policy will not need to tighten further as the Fed has confirmed repeatedly.”

The derivatives market is now estimating a 47% chance that the Fed will ease monetary policy at its March meeting. This is a decrease from 51% at the end of last week. Two weeks ago, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in March was up to 80%.

Despite recent solid economic data, growing deflationary pressures have kept a lid on US Treasury yields and the dollar, said Jonathan Petersen, market economist at Capital Economics.

Other central banks such as the European Central Bank have pushed back market expectations of upcoming rate cuts, he added.

“In that context, our view is that there is not much opportunity for the USD price to increase strongly in the coming quarters,” the expert said.

The JPY/USD pair is currently up 0.3% at 148.06 after the Bank of Japan (BOJ) was expected to end its easy monetary policy in the near future.

“The JPY/USD pair is likely to decline, as there is still a chance for the BOJ to remove negative interest rates at its March or April meeting,” said Yujiro Goto, a foreign exchange expert at Nomura.

“The yen will find it difficult to rise sharply against the dollar. If the BOJ changes its monetary policy, the yen is expected to appreciate by about 5 yen from its current level. As a result, the exchange rate may fall below 140 yen/dollar,” predicts Hirofumi Suzuki, director of foreign exchange strategy at SMBC.

The euro fell 0.7% last week. EUR/USD was up 0.1% at 1.0856. A survey showed German consumer sentiment was weaker than expected.

ECB policymaker Martins Kazaks said the central bank is on the right track to reduce inflation, but needs to be patient before reversing policy.

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