An interesting piece of news recently shows that the heat of gold has gone beyond professional trading floors. The giant retail chain Costco in the US recorded a "sold out" situation with gold bars both online and in stores.
This shows that precious metals are not only of interest to financial investors but have also crept into the minds of ordinary consumers.
Costco gold bars (Photo: Getty).
A tumultuous but "sweet" year
2025 could be a historic year for gold. The precious metal has been on a tear, rising nearly 50% since the start of the year, a performance that is three times greater than the S&P 500.
Spot gold hit an all-time high of $4,360 an ounce on October 20. But all parties must come to an end, and prices subsequently pulled back to $3,970 an ounce early last week.
But the decline did not last long. Last week, the gold price recovered strongly, returning to the threshold of 4,260 USD. This rapid recovery shows that the market's confidence in gold is still very high. Currently, the world gold price is fluctuating between 4,000-4,100 USD.
Analysts point out that there are many factors converging to create a "perfect storm" for gold prices.
First and foremost, gold continues to demonstrate its role as a “safe haven” in the face of global economic uncertainty. The US economic outlook remains uncertain, and concerns are growing about the sustainability of the stock market rally. In such an environment, investors tend to seek gold as a safe haven.
Second, huge inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Demand from gold ETFs in North America has been a major driver. In the third quarter alone, physical gold holdings in US ETFs surged 160% year-on-year, more than offsetting the decline in jewelry and retail bar demand elsewhere.
Gold trading volume in the US in October hit a record $208 billion per day, a figure that shows the undeniable appeal of the precious metal.
Finally, other macro factors such as the possibility of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cutting interest rates, a weaker US dollar and high global public debt levels are also fueling gold's rally.
The recent price drop has worried many investors. However, many experts believe that this is just a healthy technical correction in a long-term uptrend.
According to Mr. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, this correction is taking place in a well-established uptrend. He believes that this is a "retest" of important support levels, where buying pressure often comes back strongly. As long as the key support zones hold, the bullish structure of gold remains intact.
Simply put, the market needs such "breaks" to consolidate before it can go further, instead of overheating unsustainably.
Gold prices have increased by nearly 50% since the beginning of the year, about three times the increase of the S&P 500 index (Photo: Times of India).
So where will the gold go?
This is the most interesting question. The prestigious investment bank UBS has made a remarkable forecast: In case of increased policy risks or financial market instability, the price of gold can absolutely climb another 10%, reaching the mark of 4,700 USD/ounce.
Gold's medium- and long-term outlook remains positive, based on fundamentals such as global monetary trends, continued central bank buying, and simmering geopolitical tensions.
In 2025, gold will be the most promising investment channel. However, high profits come with tax "dark corners" that new investors can easily ignore.
In the US, physical gold and physical gold ETFs are taxed at higher rates than stocks: Long-term holdings of stocks are taxed at up to 20%, while physical gold is taxed at up to 28%.
“Just because gold is in an ETF doesn’t mean you’re exempt from tax,” warns Tommy Lucas, a financial expert and tax agent.
Therefore, investors need to carefully study the regulations and characteristics of each investment channel before making a decision.
Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/vang-tang-nong-toan-cau-canh-bao-rui-ro-thue-va-dieu-chinh-gia-20251116233654275.htm
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