Robusta coffee prices fall for second consecutive week, forecast to fall further next week; Methodical investment still wins big

In 2024, coffee prices continued to increase. At one point, coffee prices reached over 130,000 VND/kg. The high and relatively stable price of coffee at over 100,000 VND/kg is a factor that helps people feel secure in investing in this crop in a more systematic way.

Coffee price today 12/29/2024

World coffee prices fell sharply in the last trading week of 2024.

According to World & Vietnam , the London floor fell sharply at the close of trading on December 27. Robusta coffee prices on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for January 2025 delivery decreased by 88 USD, trading at 4,953 USD/ton. The March 2025 delivery period decreased by 69 USD, trading at 4,884 USD/ton. Average trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased, with the March 2025 delivery period decreasing by 2 cents, trading at 322.65 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery period decreased by 2.1 cents, trading at 317.60 cents/lb. Average trading volume.

Thus, at the end of the 52nd week of the year, the price of robusta coffee on the London market has lost the $5,000 mark, this is the second consecutive week of decline, based on the price of March 2025. The price of arabica coffee on the New York market is no better, continuing to mark a slight decline compared to the previous week. At the end of the week, the price of robusta coffee futures for delivery in March 2025 decreased by $49/ton. The price of arabica coffee futures for delivery in March decreased by 2.35 cents/lb.

Coffee prices have been under pressure this week due to currency factors and rising benchmark inventories. Current supplies have increased after ICE-monitored arabica inventories rose to a 2-1/2-year high of 990,395 bags at the end of last week. The weak Brazilian real this week has also contributed to the decline in coffee prices. In addition, the strong performance of coffee in 2024 has prompted speculators to liquidate contracts to take profits at the end of the year, which has also contributed to the decline in coffee prices over the past two weeks.

According to industry experts, technically, London market prices are forecast to continue to decrease next week with the level 1 support price currently at around 4,898 USD and likely to go lower, but it will be difficult to fall above the 4,785 USD/ton mark, which is the second resistance level, which is considered quite strong.

This week and next, while long holidays are celebrated in many countries, the consumer market is quiet while most coffee producing countries are approaching peak harvest time.

Domestic coffee prices today, December 28, decreased by 1,200 - 1,300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: aivivu)

Domestic coffee prices today, December 29, traded in the range of 120,300 - 121,000 VND/kg. Over the past week, domestic coffee prices have lost an average of 200 VND/kg. Vietnam's coffee harvest has been delayed by nearly 2 months and has been heavily affected by climate change, heavy rain and cold weather, causing coffee berries to ripen slowly. Meanwhile, farmers mainly harvest red-ripe coffee to achieve high yields, so the harvesting process is delayed, according to the Vietnam Coffee - Cocoa Association (Vicofa).

Domestic coffee prices today, December 28, decreased by 1,200 - 1,300 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,538	+ 330
DAK LAK	120,800	- 1,200
LAM DONG	120,300	- 1,300
GIA LAI	120,800	- 1,200
DAK NONG	121,000	- 1,300

(Source: giacaphe.com)

Vietnam's coffee exports in 2024 will reach nearly 5.5 billion USD with a total volume of more than 1.3 million tons. High export coffee prices are one of the factors helping Vietnamese coffee reach this important milestone.

Thus, the Vietnamese coffee industry had a very successful year when exports exceeded the 5 billion USD mark in both the crop year and the calendar year. Coffee became the third agricultural product after vegetables and rice, with an export turnover of over 5 billion USD and was the agricultural product with the strongest price increase among Vietnam's main export products.

The increase in export coffee prices has also led to an increase in domestic coffee prices. Currently, coffee prices are at a record high, fluctuating above 120,000 VND/kg and at times reaching 130,000 VND/kg. According to agricultural experts, the high and relatively stable coffee price of over 100,000 VND/kg is a factor that helps people feel secure in investing in this crop in a more systematic way, creating more motivation for people to feel secure in sticking with and confidently investing in coffee for the long term.

This helps coffee trees develop sustainably, improve quality and value, contributing to the successful implementation of economic development targets in 2024. High coffee prices also motivate cooperatives, businesses and people to join together to produce coffee according to sustainable value chains. The linkage models will help optimize the production, processing and consumption of coffee. Thereby, bringing long-term benefits to both growers and coffee businesses.

This year, coffee growers have had a good harvest and good prices. In 2025, the opportunity for Vietnamese coffee is still very large when the world's leading coffee producing country, Brazil, will reduce production.

According to the US Department of Agriculture, drought and high temperatures during the fruit development period in Brazil will result in lower yields than initially estimated. Brazil's coffee exports next year will be 2.6 million bags lower than in 2024. Meanwhile, in Vietnam, the world's second-largest producer, coffee exports are expected to increase by 1.8 million bags in 2025 thanks to improved supplies.

With the sharp increase in coffee export prices and the advantage in supply, Vietnamese coffee is facing the opportunity to change its position in the world market.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-29122024-gia-ca-phe-robusta-giam-tuan-thu-hai-lien-tiep-du-bao-se-con-giam-trong-tuan-toi-dau-tu-bai-ban-van-thang-lon-299027.html