With Han Kang's (South Korea) victory last year, the alternating awarding of prizes between men and women is gradually being confirmed. Furthermore, observations show that the Swedish Academy's Literary Committee usually awards prizes sequentially across geographical regions, so it is highly likely that this year's honor will go to a male writer from Oceania, the Caribbean, or Eastern Europe.
According to Nicer Odds – which correctly predicted Annie Ernaux in 2022 and nearly matched Jon Fosse in 2023 – leading the list this year is Australian writer Gerald Murnane. He lives a relatively reclusive life, has been hailed as "the greatest living English-language writer that many people may not know about," and is highly regarded by many authors, including award-winning writers Jon Fosse and JMCoetzee.
From left to right: Gerald Murnane, László Krasznahorkai and Amitav Ghosh, three strong contenders this year.
PHOTO: THE GUARDIAN
There are several reasons for this hypothesis. More than 50 years have passed since Patrick White – the author of *The Human Tree * – was honored, and Australia, or Oceania in general, has yet to be named. Furthermore, the "endorsement" of previous winners is also considered, as the rules allow them to send invitations to nominate individuals they deem worthy.
Last year, Australian author Alexis Wright was predicted to be in second place, and this year she is also in the Top 10. Although the alternating awarding of prizes between men and women is likely to be maintained, two female authors, Cristina Rivera Garza (Mexico) and Tan Xue (China), still rank highly. Cristina Rivera Garza is a completely new face, emerging after winning the 2024 Pulitzer Prize in the memoir/autobiography category.
Ranked second on Nicer Odds' list is Hungarian writer László Krasznahorkai, author of the novels War and War and The Dance of Satan . He is highly regarded for his distinctive writing style with long, complex sentences and a pessimistic view of the current world – a view that also reflects the conflicts occurring everywhere, as the recent message following the award ceremony is very relevant to reality. Like Han Kang, he has won the International Booker Prize and numerous literary awards in Europe and the English-speaking world. Following him are Haruki Murakami (Japan), Mircea Cărtărescu (Romania), Thomas Pynchon (USA), Michel Houellebecq (France), and Enrique Vila-Matas (Spain).
At the bottom of the list are other familiar names, such as Salman Rushdie (India, UK), Anne Carson, Margaret Atwood (Canada), César Aira (Argentina), Colm Tóibín (Ireland), Yoko Tawada (Japan, Germany), Ludmila Ulitskaja (Russia)... Meanwhile, writer, translator, and researcher Mathilde Montpetit, who accurately predicted the four recent Nobel Literature laureates, believes that Indian author Amitav Ghosh (not on Nicer Odds' list) will be honored for his works on ecological crises.
Source: https://thanhnien.vn/ai-se-doat-nobel-van-chuong-2025-18525100823025101.htm
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