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Google's position is under threat in the AI race. Photo: Reuters |
In the generative AI race, who is leading depends on how you look at the data. If you only look at native app users, ChatGPT is far ahead of Google Gemini. But when you take the overall ecosystem into account, the tables are turned.
According to new figures released in the Google vs. DOJ trial, Gemini had about 35 million daily active users (DAUs) as of March. Meanwhile, according to Barclays estimates, ChatGPT has about 160 million DAUs – more than four times Gemini.
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Chart showing daily active users for ChatGPT and Gemini. Source: Barclays research |
In fact, ChatGPT’s usage is even larger. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman revealed that ChatGPT reached 500 million weekly active users (WAUs) in April, a broader metric that shows its growing popularity.
Google was slow to get started. Gemini—which originally launched as Bard—didn’t launch globally on iOS until November 2024, nearly 18 months after ChatGPT debuted on iPhone. The mid-way name change and constant changes also slowed adoption.
However, if we expand the scope of analysis to include Google's ecosystem, the balance tilts heavily towards the "search giant".
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Chart showing daily active users for ChatGPT and Google Search. Source: Barclays research |
Google Search now has over 2 billion monthly active users (MAUs) and around 1.5 billion DAUs. Even as ChatGPT is growing rapidly, ChatGPT's daily active users were only around 10% of Google Search's as of March.
Gemini’s recent growth, with daily active users nearly quadrupling since October 2024, is largely due to its strategy of pre-installing on Android devices rather than getting users to download the app natively. This is the same strategy that has helped Google Search dominate the market for years, by becoming the default choice on billions of devices, including iPhones.
Gemini is gradually being integrated directly into Google Search, giving this AI technology immediate access to more than 2 billion users each month. At the same time, Google has also signed agreements to pre-install Gemini on Android devices and Chromebooks, expanding its powerful distribution channel.
Meanwhile, ChatGPT has grown largely on organic traction thanks to its constant rollout of new features, like the impressive photo-rendering technology it launched earlier this year.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is well aware of the importance of distribution. He recently mentioned the possibility of acquiring Google’s Chrome browser if the US Justice Department forces Google to sell the asset. Chrome is now a key tool in consolidating Google’s search dominance.
If you look at user engagement in a pure AI environment, ChatGPT has the upper hand. But if you look at platform distribution scale—especially across Android and Search—Google still has strong leverage.
However, Google's strategy of tightly tying its products and services together is under pressure from antitrust lawsuits, which could make it more difficult for Google to deeply integrate Gemini into its ecosystem.
In the long run, this is not a one-horse race. The battle between the default distribution ecosystem and the organic user acquisition apps will continue to rage. As regulations tighten and OpenAI expands ChatGPT’s integration into more platforms, the gap between the two sides may narrow.
But at the moment, "who is leading" depends entirely on the data perspective.
Source: https://znews.vn/chatgpt-vuot-google-trong-cuoc-dua-ai-post1549063.html
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