Securities 'after' tax delay: Avoid haste, risk management still needs to be prioritized

After a rare "buying" session at ceiling prices in market history, Vietnamese stocks have gradually stabilized - Photo: AI drawing

Stocks seek balance after rapid and sharp volatility

VN-Index closed last weekend's session at 1,222.5 points, up nearly 12 points compared to the close last weekend.

Mr. Dinh Quang Hinh, head of macro and market strategy at VNDIRECT Securities, said that when entering next week, the market may continue to seek a balance point after a period of rapid and strong fluctuations.

He pointed out some factors supporting the market such as cheap valuation when the P/E of VN-Index is below 12 times, the business results of the first quarter of 2025 of listed enterprises are forecasted to grow positively, KRX is about to be deployed and credit is growing positively...

However, on the other hand, Mr. Hinh is still worried about the tariff risk as the US and China have not shown any signs of concession and continue to escalate tensions between the two countries. Therefore, investors should not be "hasty" and need to maintain a cautious mindset.

"The 1,240 - 1,260 point zone could be the resistance zone for this recovery," Mr. Hinh predicted. Giving recommendations, the expert said that investors should take advantage of the recovery to reassess the impact of tariffs on businesses in their investment portfolios, come up with solutions, and restructure the portfolio.

Investors should gradually shift to industries that are less affected by the trade war, benefiting from the Government 's fiscal and monetary stimulus policies as well as the recovery trend of domestic consumer demand.

The An Binh Securities (ABS) analysis team also said that Vietnam is in the 90-day tax deferral period for negotiations. During this period, the number of export orders to the US is forecast to increase more than usual due to the need for US distributors to stockpile goods in preparation for the tax period.

"However, there are many complicated issues that need to be negotiated and there is still a risk that the negotiation results will not be as expected. In such a case, the 46% tax rate may be adjusted higher, or applied earlier...", ABS experts said.

In addition, Vietnam aims to actively develop and exploit other markets, but it also needs to take into account the economic stagnation in many major economies and the fact that Chinese goods that cannot be exported to the US will be sold at cheap prices in the remaining markets. Therefore, shifting to other markets will not be easy.

With the above assumptions, ABS experts predict that the stock market in the coming period will face many new important risks, along with the existing economic difficulties. Therefore, risk management during recovery phases needs to be prioritized.

Will the market narrow its gains this week?

Regarding the market, Ms. Tran Thi Khanh Hien - Director of Analysis at MB Securities (MBS), said that it will basically stabilize while waiting for information from the reciprocal tax rate of 10% in the next 3 months.

In the recent downturn, only Vingroup and sugar production groups were considered "storm shelters", while export stocks or industrial real estate groups were sold heavily.

Therefore, MBS experts predict that any tariff information related to the above-mentioned falling stock groups, even if it only brings a small ray of hope, will easily create a psychological bottom, resulting in a compensatory increase.

As for the general market, the VN-Index "flash" into a "bear" market (continuous decline) and then recovers, so it will shake off many leveraged stocks as well as resolve most of the necessary liquidation activities.

In the basic scenario, Ms. Hien predicts that the market will narrow its growth momentum this week, especially when it only moves towards the resistance zone of 1,240 - 1,260 points.

In the cautious scenario, the 46% tax rate, if considered as the ceiling, would correspond to the market having created a bottom for reference at the 1,080 point area. The near support zones for the market in this scenario would be in the 1,150 - 1,160 point area.

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BINH KHANH

Source: https://tuoitre.vn/chung-khoan-hau-hoan-ap-thue-tranh-nong-voi-quan-tri-rui-ro-van-can-duoc-uu-tien-20250414083123634.htm