Experts predict 3 GDP growth scenarios with new US tariff policy

Speaking at the Vietnam Economic Conference in the New Context, Dr. Can Van Luc, member of the Prime Minister's Policy Advisory Council, said that with the current economic situation, Vietnam is preparing for three possible scenarios in 2025, after completing tariff negotiations with the US.

With the baseline scenario, Mr. Luc said that the probability of occurrence could reach 60%, which is the scenario where the US reciprocal tax rate on Vietnam's export goods is 20-25%.

This option takes effect from July 9, 2025 and lasts for 1 year or sooner, after which negotiations continue to reduce the tax rate to a lower level.

If the US maintains a 46% tax rate, Vietnam's exports will lose 5.5-6%, and GDP growth in 2025 will stop at 5.5-6%. (Illustration: H. Linh)

In this scenario, exports could decrease by 1.2-1.5% compared to the normal scenario, equivalent to a decrease of 6-7.5 billion USD; FDI capital would also decrease by 3-5%. At that time, the consumer price index would be at 4-4.5% and GDP growth in 2025 is forecast to be 6.5-7%.

The second, more positive scenario is that Vietnam will only be subject to a 10% tax on goods exported to the US, similar to 126 other countries. With this scenario, Mr. Luc believes that the probability of an agreement being reached is only about 20%. But if this option is feasible, it will be a bright picture.

At that time, the export situation and realized FDI capital were not significantly affected. This means that GDP growth could reach the expected level according to the plan of 7.5-8%, inflation was well controlled.

The most negative scenario is that the US will maintain the 46% reciprocal tax rate on goods exported from Vietnam and apply it from July 9. With this scenario, Dr. Can Van Luc said that Vietnamese goods may have to compete with a series of countries with lower reciprocal tax rates, exports will be most heavily affected and may decrease by 5.5-6% compared to the normal scenario, equivalent to a decrease of 22-24 billion USD.

Realized FDI capital is also expected to decrease by 6-8%. At that time, GDP growth this year will only reach 5.5-6%, inflation will be around 5%.

The most heavily affected industries are computers, components and electronic devices; seafood; plastic products...

And if the reciprocal tax rate does not decrease, in 2026, the negative impact will be greater, because the time is longer.

Ha Linh

Source: https://vtcnews.vn/chuyen-gia-du-bao-3-kich-ban-tang-truong-gdp-voi-chinh-sach-thue-quan-moi-cua-my-ar942538.html