Expert: VN-Index's decrease is appropriate, many positive signals are coming

Continue to adjust

In the first trading session of the week on September 8, VN-Index continued to decrease by 42.44 points, close to 1,624.5 points. A series of stocks on HoSE hit the floor in the red covering the market. The banking group decreased the most, affecting the index. Meanwhile, foreign investors reversed to net buy more than 955 billion VND, focusing on HPG, SSI, CTG.

Many securities companies believe that the decline will continue. Yuanta Vietnam Securities said that the market may continue to decline in the next session and the VN-Index may retest the support level of 1,600 points. In addition, the market may experience a technical recovery at the support level of 1,600 points of the VN-Index, but short-term risks remain high, so investors should not participate in bottom fishing.

The sentiment indicator has dropped sharply back to the bearish zone. The short-term trend of the general market has been downgraded from neutral to bearish. Therefore, investors can consider reducing the proportion of stocks to low levels and should not buy new stocks at this stage.

TPBank Securities believes that the VN-Index is under strong downward pressure, thereby sending a signal of violating the short-term trend. Notably, the double-top pattern has been clearly formed, while momentum indicators have shown negative divergence, indicating that the risk of price decline is still present.

Accordingly, the correction momentum is likely to continue in the short term, with the target of reduction possibly towards the 1,511 point area. However, the 1,600 point area still plays the role of the nearest support and can create conditions for a technical recovery. This is only a short-term opportunity for investors to reduce the proportion or restructure the portfolio to a safer level.

Sharing the same view,ACB Securities said that compared to the peak on Friday morning, the market has decreased by a total of 87 points, equivalent to 5% compared to the peak of 1,711 points. However, compared to the bottom of 1,483 points after the "misstep" in early August, this peak corresponds to an increase of about 15%.

A 5% market decline after a 15% increase could still be a reasonable correction. Selling pressure has been concentrated on banking stocks in the last two sessions. Banking stocks that increased sharply in the previous period are now the stocks that have decreased the most, typically VPB.

However, in the context of a relatively stable macro economy and the upgrade results to be announced by FTSE in early October, a strong market correction will be an opportunity for investors to increase the proportion of their stock portfolio at the next support levels of the market.

Positive signals

The market has made new progress in the upgrading process. Circular 25/2025 of the State Bank has been officially issued with many major changes that will create favorable conditions for foreign capital to participate in the stock market.

In particular, some of the upgrade-related regulations will come into effect immediately, which is crucial for the upcoming FTSE stock market classification review on 7 October.

Circular 25 has added provisions allowing foreign investors conducting indirect investment activities in Vietnam to authorize financial institutions to open, close and use payment accounts. Banks and foreign bank branches are allowed to identify foreign investors and authorized organizations in accordance with the law on anti-money laundering.

The Circular also allows the use of the SWIFT system (global financial information system) to open and use payment accounts for foreign investors, and allows the opening of foreign currency payment accounts by electronic means.

Notably, electronic withdrawals and transactions on payment accounts no longer require biometric verification, improving flexibility and convenience for investors.

Prior to Circular 25, the State Bank issued Circular 03/2025 regulating the opening and use of Vietnamese Dong accounts for indirect investment activities. The Ministry of Finance also issued Circular 20/2025 amending Circular 51/2021, focusing on information disclosure obligations and reporting regimes of foreign investors.

These changes have significantly simplified administrative procedures and shortened the time to open an account. According to the Ministry of Finance, the time to complete the application is now only about 2 weeks, in line with the expectations of foreign investors and approaching international practice.

Mr. Tran Hoang Son - Director of Market Strategy, VPBank Securities Joint Stock Company (VPBankS) - said that VN-Index has increased by about 32% compared to the beginning of the year, up more than 50% compared to the bottom. Therefore, at a certain stage, especially after a period of strong growth, VN-Index has reached important resistance levels. The growth momentum often shows signs of slowing down or a few corrections before breaking through to a new high.

After the holidays, liquidity has slowed down, investors are somewhat cautious, waiting for a series of important information in September, such as information about the Fed lowering interest rates, upgrading or important macro indicators. In addition, foreign investors have also been net sellers recently, with more than VND29,000 billion in August alone. In total, since the beginning of the year, this group has net sold more than VND60,000 billion.

Combined with other signals such as exchange rates, investors have a wait-and-see mentality. Short-term pressure with profit-taking is a completely normal phenomenon. If the VN-Index "breaks" the support zones of 1,600-1,620 points, the market will have a downward "zigzag" correction phase.

In the short term, correction signals are taking place but investors should not be too worried because it could be a technical correction in a longer uptrend of the index. Advice is that investors need to closely monitor the index and liquidity, especially important support zones such as 1,630 or 1,600 points. If VN-Index closes below this zone, investors should be cautious and wait for disbursement at lower support zones.

Assessing the positive information, the representative of the above securities company said that the Fed is expected to lower interest rates at the September meeting. If this happens, the easing signal will be sent and for Vietnam, the exchange rate pressure will also cool down somewhat, positively affecting the prices of asset classes, including stocks.

Regarding Vietnam's macroeconomic developments this year, August figures for import-export growth, retail sales and manufacturing activities all showed recovery. Key indicators are supporting the possibility of GDP growth in the third quarter reaching over 8%. Foreign investors may return to net buying in the latter part of this year and early next year.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/chuyen-gia-vn-index-giam-la-phu-hop-nhieu-tin-hieu-tich-cuc-dang-den-20250909063737303.htm