The race is extremely close, 7 "battlefield" states are inconclusive

According to poll results released on November 1, Mr. Donald Trump and Ms. Kamala Harris have a very small gap, just under 2% in any of the 7 "battleground" states.

US Presidential Election 2024: Mr. Donald Trump and Ms. Kamala Harris are in a very close race in 7 battleground states. (Source: AP)

The results of a public opinion poll released by The Hill newspaper and Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) on November 1 showed that in 3 out of 7 states known as the "Blue Wall" including Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the gap between the two candidates Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party and Donald Trump of the Republican Party is less than 1%.

Nearly 70 million Americans have already cast their ballots early, but inferring the final outcome from early voting data is often unreliable. US media reports say it is difficult to predict the outcome of the election based solely on early voting polling data, as there is a margin of error and it depends on each party's campaigning policies.

According to opinion polls, the race is very tight and it seems that Mr. Trump has a slight advantage, leading in more battleground states than Ms. Harris.

In the DDHQ poll, Mr. Trump leads in six states. On other sites, he leads in five. The gap stems from Wisconsin, where three other sites show Ms. Harris leading and the DDHQ poll shows Mr. Trump leading.

In 2016, Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by 2% over her opponent Donald Trump, but she still lost the election. So Mr. Trump's advantage is still not certain.

Projections from DDHQ and FiveThirtyEight give Trump a 54% and 51% chance of winning, respectively. There is a clear divide between the “Sun Belt” and the “Blue Wall,” and the divide has deepened in recent weeks.

The DDHQ poll shows Trump with his biggest advantage of any battleground in Arizona, where he leads by 2%. Not far behind are Georgia, where he leads by 1.9%, and North Carolina, where he leads by 1.4%. According to DDHQ’s forecasting models, Trump has a 65% chance of winning Georgia, while he has no more than a 53% chance in any of the three “Blue Wall” states.

But what matters is the electoral votes in those states. Marist polls of the battleground states of Michigan and Pennsylvania released on November 1 showed Harris leading her Republican opponent by 2 percentage points in each state, 50% to 48%. A third poll of Wisconsin voters showed Harris leading by 3 percentage points, 51% to 48%.

If Ms. Harris wins the three “Blue Wall” states, she will become the owner of the White House, even if Mr. Trump wins the other four battleground states - as long as the results in other states remain the same as the 2020 presidential election. In that scenario, Ms. Harris will win by the narrowest possible margin of 270 electoral votes compared to Mr. Trump's 268 electoral votes.

However, polls are not the final result. In every election, polls differ to some extent from the final result. This is inevitable because pollsters can only estimate who will actually vote.

In addition, many people only make their decisions when they get to the ballot box. Some unexpected events can also arise at the last minute.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/election-of-the-US-President-2024-cuoc-dua-vo-cung-sit-sao-7-bang-chien-truong-bat-phan-thang-bai-292451.html