The recent parliamentary elections could be a crucial turning point for Poland in particular and the European region in general.
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| The Civic Alliance, led by Donald Tusk (pictured), has a great opportunity to form a new government in Poland. (Source: Getty Images) |
Before polling stations in Poland closed at 9 p.m. on October 15, observers had already predicted this would be one of the most important elections since the founding of the Third Polish Republic in 1989.
Changes at the government level could bring about significant adjustments on a range of particularly important issues for Warsaw and the European Union (EU), of which the Eastern European nation is a member. These include domestic issues such as constitutional order, LGBTQ+ rights, abortion rights, and economic development, as well as international matters such as the stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the EU, and relations with Ukraine and Germany.
For that reason, the voter turnout this time reached 74.16%, a record high in the history of the Third Polish Republic and far exceeding the 63% mark of 1989.
Notably, the results show a strong resurgence of the opposition. As of the evening of October 16th (local time), the Civic Alliance party, led by former Prime Minister and former President of the European Council Donald Tusk, holds the advantage. This force currently has 30.4% of the votes and could win 248 out of 460 seats in Parliament.
Speaking after the election, Tusk stated: “I have been involved in politics for many years and have always strived to be the leader. However, I have never felt so happy to come in second. Poland has won. Democracy has won…”
Voters' ballots also reflect their stance and attitude towards the current government. The Law and Justice Party (PiS) received 35.73% of the votes, a sharp decrease from 44% (2019), and is expected to hold 200 out of 460 seats in Parliament. The Third Way (TD) coalition received 14.42% of the votes, and the New Left Party received 8.55%. The coalition partner of PiS, the League Party, only surpassed the threshold of 7.15%.
Euronews suggests that this result reflects voters' attitudes toward the economy's high inflation rate, cronyism, hardline stances on certain social issues, and problems with the EU in general and some allied countries in particular.
Nevertheless, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki declared the party victorious: “We have won. PiS is the winner of the 2023 parliamentary elections.” However, the party leader, Polish Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, also acknowledged that if the poll results are accurate, PiS is in a difficult position.
Despite winning the most votes, the PiS coalition with the far-right Federal Party only secured 212 seats, insufficient to form a government. In this context, the Civic Alliance led by Donald Tusk is more likely to form a government before PiS and the Federal Party have a chance.
What changes will the Civil Union's rise to power bring to Poland?
First, regarding domestic affairs, voters expect the new administration to make adjustments related to the justice system, LGBTQ+ rights, abortion rights, and environmental protection. Issues such as migration, retirement age, and other topics, which are subject to referendums concurrently with the election, are also areas of concern.
On the regional level, in contrast to Morawiecki's skeptical attitude towards the EU, Donald Tusk continues to show confidence in the organization, where he once played a significant role. At the same time, this politician supports Warsaw continuing extensive cooperation with Europe for the benefit of both sides.
Furthermore, relations between Poland and Ukraine could cool down now that the far-right Federalist Party, which has criticized Kyiv for "not appreciating" Warsaw's help, is no longer part of the ruling coalition.
In this context, can the Civic Alliance "change the game" in Poland as expected, or does PiS have a chance to retain its seat?
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