Public investment: Active disbursement but the destination is still far away

The amount of undisbursed capital in the 2023 plan is still quite large, while the time from now until the end of the year is only a matter of days. Without high determination, drastic participation, and synchronous and consistent implementation of the entire political system, of all levels and sectors, it will be very difficult to complete the task of achieving a minimum disbursement rate of 95% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister.

Time is only a matter of days

Data shows that the disbursement of public investment capital in the 11 months of 2023 is estimated at VND 460,980.05 billion, reaching 65.1% of the plan, 6.8% higher than the same period in 2022 (58.33%), the absolute number is nearly VND 123,000 billion higher. Of which, domestic capital is VND 449,827 billion (reaching 66.22% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister ), foreign capital is VND 11,153 billion (reaching 38.46% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister). In November alone, disbursement is estimated at about VND 71.3 trillion, much higher than the average of 11 months, with the average disbursed public investment capital per month reaching over VND 41.9 trillion.

By the end of November, there were a number of ministries, central agencies and localities with very high disbursement rates such as: Binh Duong (113.4%); Long An (112.7%); Ba Ria - Vung Tau (106.84%); Tien Giang (101.42%); Dong Thap (100.82%); Vietnam Development Bank and Vietnam Journalists Association both reached 100%; Hai Phong City (99.83%); Vietnam Lawyers Association (92.76%); National Assembly Office (83.61%); Vietnam Writers Association (81.6%)... In total, there were 10 ministries, central agencies and 27 localities with high disbursement rates, reaching over 70% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister.

The above results show that the solutions to urge and promote the disbursement of the 2023 state budget investment plan of the Government and the Prime Minister, together with the activities of 5 Working Groups and working delegations to inspect, urge, remove difficulties and obstacles, promote the disbursement of public investment capital as well as the efforts of all levels, sectors and units using public investment capital across the country are effective, bringing positive signals in the disbursement of public investment capital.

Although the disbursement figures (both disbursement rate and absolute numbers) have so far shown very positive changes compared to the same period in previous years, there is still a large gap compared to the actual requirements for this year. Specifically, there are about 247 trillion VND of undisbursed capital planned for 2023 (equivalent to about 35% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister) and the Government requires that the disbursement for the whole year must reach at least 95% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister. In the context of only one month left to complete the set target, this means that at least 210 trillion VND must be "spent" in this last month - that is, 4 times the average disbursement level per month.

In addition to the actual disbursement figures, some other signals also show that the ability to complete the target (disbursement for the whole year reaching at least 95% of the plan) is not easy. For example, based on the provisions of the Law on Public Investment and the Resolution of the National Assembly on allocation, the Prime Minister has assigned 100% of the state budget investment plan for 2023 to ministries, central and local agencies (total 708,252,386 billion VND). However, by November 30, 2023, ministries, central and local agencies had only allocated and assigned detailed capital investment plans for 2023 for the list of tasks and projects of VND 688,992,197 billion, reaching only 97.3% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister, meaning that there were still VND 19,260,189 billion (accounting for 2.7% of the plan assigned by the Prime Minister) that had not been allocated in detail. It is known that, implementing the assigned tasks in Resolution No. 173/NQ-CP, the Ministry of Planning and Investment in November continuously issued documents urging ministries, central and local agencies to complete project investment procedures and promptly allocate all assigned capital because there is only nearly 01 month left until the end of 2023, while all capital not allocated in detail for projects will be canceled according to the provisions of the State Budget Law.

Good disbursement will help promote growth

Dr. Le Duy Binh, Director of Economica Vietnam, said that the biggest challenge in the short term is to disburse more than VND200 trillion in public investment capital in the remaining weeks. “This is an extremely challenging figure. But if it can be done, it will contribute greatly and directly to GDP growth this year,” Dr. Le Duy Binh said.

Sharing the same view, Dr. Nguyen Dinh Cung, former Director of the Central Institute for Economic Management (CIEM), said that the positive point of the current good increase in public investment is in large infrastructure projects, and if implemented effectively, this will not only create momentum for short-term growth but also support long-term growth.

At the recent regular Government meeting in November, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh reiterated the requirement to strive to achieve the target of disbursing at least 95% of the public investment capital plan in 2023, while at the same time directing drastic and timely handling of difficulties and problems in the supply of construction materials, site clearance, and conversion of forest land use purposes... to speed up the progress of key and important projects.

With a large amount of undisbursed capital, while the end of 2023 is only a matter of days, it is clear that there will be a need for very high determination, drastic participation, and synchronous and consistent implementation of the entire political system, of all levels and sectors to be able to complete the set goals and tasks at the highest level.

The time to reach the finish line is "counting down" and to complete the target of disbursement rate of over 95%, ministries, central and local agencies need to focus on priorities in direction and administration, associated with the responsibility of the head in disbursing all assigned capital. Make a detailed disbursement plan for each project and strictly follow the plan for each week, assign specific leaders responsible for monitoring the progress of each project; implement a mechanism for assigning, assigning responsibilities, and coordinating clearly and specifically on authority and responsibility between agencies and units in implementing and disbursing capital for projects, and be responsible for the disbursement results of each project, considering this as the basis for evaluating and classifying the level of completion of assigned tasks in 2023.

In addition, many other tasks related to promoting disbursement need to be carried out such as coordinating and working to resolve arising problems; promptly announcing construction material prices and strictly controlling the prices of materials to avoid price increases and price manipulation; inspecting and supervising the site, promptly removing difficulties regarding land, resources, and dumping sites as well as urging contractors and consultants to organize "3 shifts, 4 teams" construction to speed up the progress of projects...; making advances, recovering advances, accepting and paying investment capital in accordance with regulations and as soon as there is volume; promptly replacing officials and civil servants who are weak in capacity, causing harassment and trouble... and resolutely handling negative behaviors in public investment management. Along with that, in order for public investment to be continuous and "run smoothly", thereby further supporting growth next year, the preparation stages, especially the assignment of the state budget estimate and the state budget capital investment plan for 2024, need to meet the prescribed time frames so that ministries, central and local agencies have a basis to assign and implement the plan right from the first days and months of 2024.

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