Mixed developments in the world raw material market

According to MXV, going against the general trend of the agricultural market, soybeans just experienced a recovery in the first trading session of the week. Despite being under pressure to decrease prices right at the opening, soybean prices quickly recovered thanks to the push from the increase in soybean oil, while market sentiment stabilized due to positive signals about tariff policies. At the end of the session, the price of soybean futures for July recorded an increase of more than 0.3% to 390 USD/ton.

Meanwhile, soybean oil prices rose more than 1%, marking their highest close since December 2023. The recovery of Malaysian palm oil and expectations of a new biofuel support policy in the US continue to reinforce the positive outlook for the soybean oil market, thereby indirectly supporting soybean prices in the short term.

At the end of yesterday's trading session, Arabica coffee prices on the New York Stock Exchange continued to increase, recording an increase of 2.55% to 9,040 USD/ton. This was the fifth consecutive increase, including four sessions of increases of over 2%, bringing Arabica prices to the highest level in two and a half months. In contrast, Robusta coffee prices on the London Stock Exchange remained almost unchanged, remaining stable at 5,413 USD/ton, reflecting the short-term market turmoil.

The recent strong recovery in Arabica coffee prices is not only due to the tight global supply, but also due to the instability of the financial market. Notably, the continuous weakening of the USD in recent times has caused the USD/BRL exchange rate to fall sharply, thereby supporting the increase of Arabica on the New York Stock Exchange, especially in the context of Brazil's position as the world's largest coffee producer and exporter, while the US is the world's largest consumer market.

On the other hand, Robusta coffee prices on the London Stock Exchange recorded a slight decrease due to the impact of several factors, notably the entry of the harvest season in Brazil and Indonesia. In addition to seasonal factors, the output of both countries is forecast to increase in the 2024-2025 crop year.

In addition, the first report on the 2025 crop year published by Conab in January also provided a picture of the supply situation in Brazil. Total coffee production in Brazil is estimated at 51.8 million bags (60 kg), down 4.4% from the previous season. Arabica coffee production is forecast at 34.7 million bags (60 kg) in the current season, down 12.4% from the previous season. Meanwhile, Conilon (Robusta) coffee production is estimated at 17.1 million bags (60 kg) in 2025, up 17.2% from the previous season.

In terms of exports, Brazil exported an average of 7,620 tonnes of unroasted coffee per day during the first 19 working days of April, down 29% from the average for April 2024. For roasted coffee, extracts and related products, average daily exports during the first 19 days of April were around 782 tonnes, down 16% from the same period last year.

In the first three months of this year, Brazil exported about 11.7 million 60-kg bags of coffee, down 1% compared to the same period last year. Although Brazil set an export record of 50.5 million bags in 2024, exports in the first months of 2025 have decreased due to limited domestic inventories.

On the other hand, cocoa prices on the New York Stock Exchange fell sharply by 4.79% at the end of the session on April 28. The main reason came from information about the increase in global cocoa supply, after Bloomberg reported that Nigeria's cocoa exports in March increased by 24% compared to the same period last year, reaching approximately 27,565 tons. Nigeria is currently the world's 5th largest cocoa producer.

In addition, current cocoa inventories have also increased, putting downward pressure on prices. Since falling to a 21-year low of around 1,263,490 bags on January 24, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories at U.S. ports have recovered to a six-and-a-half-month high of over 1,987,400 bags on April 28.

Source: https://baochinhphu.vn/dien-bien-trai-chieu-tren-thi-truong-hang-hoa-nguyen-lieu-the-gioi-102250429101101185.htm