Vietnam’s stock market has been in a correction for the second consecutive week, as cash flow weakened and cautious sentiment increased due to geopolitical risks and uncertainty over tax policies. The main index VN-Index was under downward pressure, but bottom-fishing demand at the support zone around 1,300 points still showed signs of improvement.
Illustration photo: Tran Viet/VNA
June is an unpredictable period.
Saigon - Hanoi Securities Company (SHS) commented that the market is entering an accumulation phase after a series of positive price increases. VN-Index was under pressure to fall at the beginning of the week, approaching the 1,300-point mark, then recovered to test the resistance zone of 1,325 points, then fell sharply at the end of the week. For the whole week, VN-Index decreased by 1.08%, closing at 1,315.49 points, still above the important support zone of 1,300 points. VN30 decreased by more than 1.25% to 1,401.20 points, approaching the peak of March 2025.
The market recorded a strong differentiation with oil and gas, fertilizer - chemicals, retail, and banking groups increasing significantly, while real estate and seaport groups were under clear profit-taking pressure. Industrial parks, securities, and construction groups continued to adjust and accumulate. Liquidity decreased by 12.8% on the HOSE floor, showing that cash flow weakened as the market approached the old peak. However, foreign investors still net bought VND 347 billion.
According to SHS, VN-Index is ending its short-term recovery phase after the news of the temporary postponement of tax imposition, moving into an accumulation phase, waiting for updates from corporate business results. Correction pressure is still present around the 1,300-point area, with selling pressure increasing sharply at the end of the week in many groups of stocks. However, bottom-fishing demand is still increasing at low prices, showing that investors are waiting for positive improvements from the market.
SHS believes that the VN-Index is expected to recover sustainably when it surpasses the resistance zone of 1,325 points, equivalent to the average of 20 sessions. The important support zone is the 1,300 point mark and stronger around 1,270 points.
SHS also noted that June is an unpredictable period, as international trade negotiations enter their final stages, with the risk of new tariffs increasing, especially after July 9 - the end of the tax moratorium. Adverse information about trade policies can put pressure on the market, especially export groups.
Escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East also made market sentiment more cautious, with hedging selling pressure increasing in highly speculative stocks such as financial services and real estate - groups that had previously surged.
SHS recommends that investors continue to consider portfolio structure, be cautious in new disbursements, and prioritize stocks with solid fundamentals, strategic industries, and good growth prospects in the current context.
In its newly released strategy report, SHS assessed that in June, investors were cautious after a strong recovery in May. The impact of the new tax policy will gradually be reflected in business results, affecting growth expectations of many industries. The VN-Index may continue to be under pressure to correct, retesting the support zone of 1,300 points. Investors need to focus on risk management.
Short-term cash flow tends to shift to defensive stocks such as electricity, water, and residential real estate. Many groups of stocks currently have reasonable valuations based on business fundamentals, but the market needs time to form a new equilibrium price zone, especially for industries affected by taxes.
Cash flow may find its way to groups less affected by taxes such as residential real estate, construction, financial services, and public utility enterprises. Securities and public investment stocks continue to be bright spots that can bring positive investment results in June.
SHS assesses the current P/E ratio (price to earnings ratio) of VN-Index at 13.54 times - lower than the 3-year (14.7 times) and 5-year (16.7 times) averages. The forward P/E (P/E index based on projected earnings) of 11.1 times is considered attractive compared to the growth prospects.
Vietnam Construction Securities Company (CSI) said that the escalating tension in the Middle East, when the Israeli air force attacked Iran, caused the global financial market to fluctuate. In the morning session of June 13, VN-Index was under intense selling pressure, at times falling sharply by nearly 19 points, approaching the psychological level of 1,300 points. However, bottom-fishing demand in this area helped narrow the decline, closing the session down only 0.57%. Session liquidity increased dramatically, the highest matched volume in 2 months, up 31.9% compared to the average of 20 sessions - showing that large bottom-fishing cash flows were partly involved.
The June 13 decline was not too negative as it was mainly influenced by external factors and the index narrowed more than half of its decline before closing. The weekly chart shows that the VN-Index fell 1.08%, but the volume decreased compared to the previous 4 weeks, the 1,300-point support zone remained firm, showing that the previous uptrend had not been broken.
CSI forecasts that the correction may continue, VN-Index will return to the strong support zone of 1,285 - 1,300 points next week before returning to the uptrend. This securities company maintains the view of holding the portfolio, recommending investors to open more buying positions when the index adjusts to the support zone.
In fact, in the context of escalating geopolitical tensions, global stock markets have also recorded unstable developments.
Global stocks fluctuate strongly
On June 13, global stock markets plunged after Israel launched a large-scale airstrike on Iran, prompting Tehran to retaliate and raising fears of all-out war. Major indexes on Wall Street fell more than 1%: Dow Jones fell 1.8% to 42,197.79 points; S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 5,976.97 points; Nasdaq Composite fell 1.3% to 19,406.83 points.
In Europe, London's FTSE 100 fell 0.4% to 8,850.63 points; Paris' CAC 40 fell 1% to 7,684.68 points; and Frankfurt's DAX 30 fell 1.1% to 23,516.23 points. Airline shares fell sharply as many flights in the Middle East were suspended.
The US dollar has increased in value, gold is approaching a record of nearly 3,500 USD/ounce, up about 30% since the beginning of 2025, showing that money is flowing to safe-haven assets.
David Morrison (Trade Nation) commented that the stock market decline and the rise in safe-haven assets showed the fragility of geopolitical volatility. However, the sell-off was orderly and not panic-like.
In Asia, stocks fell sharply on June 13 due to war concerns. The MSCI Asia- Pacific Index (excluding Japan) fell more than 1%. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 1.33%. The yen - considered a safe haven asset - rose, putting pressure on shares of exporters such as automobiles and electronics; South Korea's KOSPI fell 0.87%, ending a seven-session winning streak. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.72% to 3,378.01 points. Other indexes such as Shenzhen and ChiNext also lost more than 1%. In Hong Kong (China), the Hang Seng Index fell 0.7%.
In general, geopolitical tensions are the main factor influencing global investor sentiment, creating adjustment pressure and promoting cash flows to safe assets such as gold, the US dollar and defensive stocks.
According to VNA
Source: https://baohoabinh.com.vn/12/201980/Dong-tien-yeu,-nha-dau-tu-than-trong-cho-tin-hieu-moi.htm
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