The Fed is preparing for a "tense" meeting.

Although analysts are almost certain that the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25-4.5%, the meeting is still important.

The US economy is facing a complex set of factors including persistent inflation, a cooling labor market, deepening internal divisions and unprecedented political pressure from the White House. Experts predict that there will likely be a fierce debate within the Fed, which will strengthen expectations for a rate cut in September.

The Fed chairman is under intense pressure from President Donald Trump and White House officials to reduce borrowing costs, and Mr. Powell may face dissent from Fed officials who want to support a slowing labor market.

“Even if there is no change in policy rates this week, I think there are signs of an impending turning point in the policy path,” Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, told Bloomberg.

“But of course, most Fed members don’t seem to have reached that point yet, as they remain wary of the inflation risks associated with tariffs,” she added.

Interest rate futures in the US financial market show investors are betting heavily on the possibility of a rate cut at the next meeting in September.

Fed chuẩn bị bước vào cuộc họp căng như dây đàn - 1 — Mr. Donald Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (Photo: FT).

While the decision at this week's meeting is all but a foregone conclusion, markets will be closely watching every signal from the Fed's statement and press conference for clues about September. Any changes in language or the appearance of dissenting votes will be closely analyzed.

Diane Swonk, chief economist at KPMG, noted that disagreement is common as the Fed approaches policy turning points. “Expect disagreement as the Fed moves closer to a rate cut, given the uncertainty surrounding tariff policy,” Swonk wrote in the report.

Analysts at Bank of America also noted that while most Fed officials appear to be willing to wait for more information, these disagreements could start a trend that shows more frequent divisions within the Fed.

According to Mr. Michael Gapen, a US economist at Morgan Stanley bank, the Fed Chairman will likely continue to emphasize patience because there are still many uncertainties from President Trump's tariff policies.

The Fed has kept interest rates at 4.25% to 4.5% throughout the year, although officials have left open the possibility of two cuts later this year. The decision reflects the central bank’s efforts to balance its two core missions of maintaining stable prices and maximizing employment.

The U.S. economic picture is not much different than it was a few months ago. Job growth continued in June, albeit at a slower pace. But inflation remains a difficult problem.

The situation is further complicated by the increasingly intense pressure from President Donald Trump aimed at Chairman Powell.

Mr. Trump has repeatedly called for interest rate cuts, in part to reduce the cost of servicing the government's debt. He recently visited the Fed headquarters and publicly criticized the cost of renovating the building. Experts say President Trump's new move could increase direct pressure on the US central bank.

In response, Mr. Powell has always maintained a steadfast stance, emphasizing that the Fed is an independent organization, decisions are based only on economic data and he cannot be legally fired without good reason.

Source: https://dantri.com.vn/kinh-doanh/fed-chuan-bi-buoc-vao-cuoc-hop-cang-nhu-day-dan-20250728153325514.htm