Arabica coffee price exceeds 8,000 USD/ton, Robusta close to 5,000 USD/ton

The Vietnam Commodity Exchange (MXV) said that green covered the world commodity market in the first trading session of the week (May 19). The energy group attracted attention on the price board when it went against the trend of the whole market.

Meanwhile, weather remains the biggest factor influencing coffee prices. Closing, the MXV-Index was flat at 2,196 points.

Giá cà phê Arabica tăng mạnh 2,48%, lên 8.260 USD/tấn

MXV-Index

Prolonged rain, slow harvest, coffee prices increase

According to MXV, at the end of the trading session on May 19, the price of Arabica coffee for July contracts on the ICE US exchange increased sharply by 2.48% to 8,260 USD/ton, while Robusta for the same term on the ICE EU exchange also increased by 2.22% to 4,973 USD/ton. This increase was mainly due to information that the coffee harvest in Brazil is being delayed due to prolonged rain, especially in key Robusta growing areas such as Bahia and Espirito Santo.

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According to Safras & Mercado, as of May 13, only 7% of the coffee area had been harvested, lower than the five-year average of 10%. Robusta alone reached 11% of the area, down from 16% at the same time last year, while Arabica reached only 4%, lower than 7% last year.

The 2024/25 export season for high-quality washed Arabica coffee in Mexico and Central America is now just four months away. Most of these countries’ production has reportedly been sold, leaving only limited coffee on the market. Exports have been hampered by ship and equipment shortages, congestion, and reduced shipments at ports in Honduras, El Salvador, and Nicaragua throughout the season, causing significant delays in shipments.

The price of Arabica coffee for July contract on the ICE US exchange increased sharply by 2.48% to 8,260 USD/ton.

In addition, according to MXV, Brazil's average daily coffee exports in the first half of May reached just over 105,600 60kg bags, down 43% year-on-year, reflecting a slowdown in international supply.

Meanwhile, Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange reached their highest level in nearly 8 months with 4,626 lots, while Arabica inventories were around 858,530 60kg bags, the highest level in more than 3 months, continuing to put pressure on prices in the medium term.

Meanwhile, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) has just raised its 2025 coffee production forecast to 55 million bags, up 2.3% from last month, of which Arabica production is expected to reach 37 million bags, up 3.5% from the previous forecast but still 7.5% lower than in 2024. However, the amount of coffee sold has only reached 16% of the expected output, lower than the same period last year, showing that the actual supply to the market is still limited.

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