In the 2023-2024 crop year (October 2023 to September 2024), global coffee output is expected to reach 8.2 million tons, up 11.7% from the previous crop year and higher than the record of 558,000 tons in the 1995-1996 crop year. Vietnam is the largest coffee exporter with nearly 1.4 million tons, accounting for 49.8% of the total global export volume, according to the International Coffee Organization (ICO).
Coffee price today 11/20/2024
World coffee prices have fallen continuously in the early trading sessions this week. Robusta coffee prices are increasingly far from the $5,000/ton mark. The USD continues to stay at a high level, causing difficulties for the coffee industry.
Domestic coffee prices continued to increase, trading in the range of 113,800 - 114,300 VND/kg. Surprisingly, although world coffee prices decreased for two consecutive sessions, domestic coffee prices still recorded an increase, which is considered a strange development of the market.
Thus, in the world market, after a week of "fever", since the beginning of this week, coffee prices have continuously cooled down, slightly decreasing on both London and New York exchanges. The reason is also said to be because the European Parliament has issued a final conclusion on the implementation of the Anti-Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) which will be delayed by 12 months according to the EC's proposal in order to give businesses more time to prepare better and for EU authorities to have specific and detailed instructions in implementation.
However, in the longer term, storms threatening Vietnam's coffee-harvesting regions, along with drought in Brazil that is causing concerns about short-term supply disruptions, have pushed prices higher.
Brazil's 2024-2025 coffee bean output is expected to fall 0.4% from the current crop, mainly due to a decline in arabica due to the impact of drought. Accordingly, the country's next arabica coffee output could fall by up to 10.5% from the previous crop, to 40 million 60-kg bags.
Meanwhile, in Vietnam, concerns are growing that the unsecured harvest schedule will impact exports and even reduce output due to the inability to ensure bean quality. Previously, due to the impact of the prolonged heat wave at the beginning of the year, analysts predicted that Vietnam's coffee output in the 2024-2025 crop could decrease by 10-15% compared to the 2023-2024 crop.
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| Domestic coffee prices on November 19 increased by 700 - 800 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Freepik) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on November 19, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange decreased, the delivery period in January 2025 decreased by 79 USD, trading at 4,656 USD/ton. The delivery period in March 2025 decreased by 66 USD, trading at 4,609 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange decreased, with the December 2024 delivery period decreasing by 0.9 cents, trading at 281.30 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery period decreased by 0.85 cents, trading at 279.30 cents/lb. Trading volume was high on average.
Domestic coffee prices on November 19 increased by 700 - 800 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Last week, the price of robusta coffee futures for delivery in January 2025 increased by 401 USD/ton. The price of arabica coffee futures for delivery in December increased by 28.45 cents/lb. The price of domestic coffee increased by an average of 6,000 VND/kg.
According to experts' analysis, robusta coffee is recovering and growing. Currently, the new harvest from Vietnam is being harvested and this type of product will reach the market in the first half of 2025. Meanwhile, the new robusta harvests from Indonesia, Brazil and Uganda will have to wait until the second half of 2025. This continues to be the driving force for increasing coffee prices.
However, the amount of short buying on the two exchanges is high. Coffee prices this week also depend heavily on the movement of the USD. In addition, the market continues to wait for information on the US President's management policies as well as the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) moves on interest rate management policies. Speculators are planting prices on coffee to take advantage of the high USD.
In addition, when EUDR will only start to apply on December 30, 2025 for large enterprises, small and micro enterprises will be extended until June 30, 2026, it will help cool the market.
However, the delay in implementing the EUDR has also caused controversy, with some businesses having prepared for implementation by the end of 2024, and many environmental organizations also saying that the extension of the EUDR is slowing down the process of protecting forests and reducing environmental impacts. Vietnam is one of the countries that is assessed to be very positive in preparing to implement anti-deforestation regulations.
Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-20112024-gia-ca-phe-giam-lien-tiep-tu-dau-tuan-trong-nuoc-minh-mot-cho-hang-viet-khong-ngai-eudr-294368.html
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