Vietnam’s coffee exports fell 12.1% year-on-year in the first 11 months of the 2023/24 crop year to 24.09 million bags (1.445 million tonnes), indicating that among the major sources of global coffee exports, only Vietnam’s coffee is experiencing a real crop failure, according to the ICO.
Coffee price today 10/15/2024
World coffee prices have increased sharply with triple digits on both London and New York exchanges. Robusta coffee prices increased by 2.9%, approaching the $5,000/ton mark, while Arabica coffee prices increased by nearly 4%.
Domestic coffee prices today, October 15, are trading in the range of 114,000 - 114,700 VND/kg. The sharp increase in world coffee prices has caused prices in the Central Highlands provinces to also increase again, making many farmers breathe a sigh of relief in the first days of the new harvest, after many days of sharp price drops. Currently, some regions in Vietnam have harvested early-ripening coffee.
Most analysts believe that low and rapidly decreasing coffee inventories are still the dominant factor, limiting the decline in coffee prices in recent days. The surplus buying position from last week is also the main driving force for the strong increase in coffee prices on both exchanges.
Certified coffee stocks fell to a four-month low on the New York Mercantile Exchange and a four-and-a-half-month low on London. Certified graded arabica stocks issued on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 640 bags on Oct. 10 to 808,252 bags, and robusta stocks fell to a four-and-a-half-month low of 4,191 lots on Oct. 11.
Excessive dryness in Brazil could reduce coffee yields and is supporting prices. Rainfall in Brazil has been consistently below average since April, damaging coffee trees during the crucial flowering stage and dampening prospects for the country’s 2025-26 arabica crop.
News of abundant supplies from Brazil in recent days has helped to limit the market's growth. According to a report by Cecafé, coffee exports from Brazil continued to increase by 33% compared to the same period last year. In September, 247,000 tons of green coffee were exported, of which 191,400 tons were Arabica and the rest were Robusta (conillon). Notably, the volume of Robusta increased by nearly 50%, while the volume of Arabica increased by only 13% in the same period. In addition to the higher volume, the price of Robusta coffee also increased by 55% compared to the previous year.
In Vietnam, the new harvest season has begun, typically beginning in late October and early November. Although weather conditions have improved after a severe drought earlier this year, the 2024-25 crop is expected to be even lower than last year’s, which was already the lowest in four years. As the new crop begins to arrive on the market, expected in the final weeks of the year, robusta supplies should improve somewhat, helping to ease market tensions.
The delay of the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is all but assured – although the move still needs approval from the European Council and Parliament – but there have been suggestions that the delay will hurt companies that are already prepared to comply.
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| Domestic coffee prices today, October 15, increased sharply by 1,500 - 1,600 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Kitco) |
According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the first trading session of the week (October 14), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange increased sharply, the delivery period in November 2024 increased by 141 USD, trading at 4,969 USD/ton. The delivery period in January 2025 increased by 165 USD, trading at 4,843 USD/ton. The average trading volume is low.
Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange increased sharply, with the December 2024 delivery term up 10 cents, trading at 262.05 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the March 2025 delivery term increased 9.8 cents, trading at 260.55 cents/lb. Trading volume was high.
Domestic coffee prices today, October 15, increased sharply by 1,500 - 1,600 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg
(Source: giacaphe.com) |
Market analysis, experts said that the currency factor was the main factor affecting coffee prices last week. It was thought that the Fed's interest rate cut would cause the USD to depreciate. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East caused speculators to seek USD and gold as safe havens for capital flows. The high USD pushed the coffee prices on both exchanges to continue to fall, after the impact of Europe's proposal to postpone the implementation of the EUDR for 1 year. The movement of the USD, along with the weather in Brazil and the harvest progress in Vietnam, will be the main factors affecting prices during this time.
Enterprises are increasing investment in instant coffee processing plants in Vietnam, so the amount of robusta coffee purchased for processing is increasing, leading to a decrease in the amount of green coffee for export. The emergence of a series of coffee business chains in Vietnam also contributes significantly to the increase in the amount of coffee consumed in the domestic market.
Although it has decreased compared to the end of September, the current coffee price is still high. Compared to the beginning of October 2023, the current coffee price in the Central Highlands is nearly 2 times higher. This is the first coffee crop year in Vietnam where the price at the beginning of the crop year is over 100,000 VND/kg. With forecasts of continued decline in coffee output in the 2024/2025 crop year, it is likely that Vietnamese coffee prices will continue to remain high throughout this crop year.
The trend of high coffee prices has prompted many growers to take advantage of the rainy season to plant more or replace existing plants. In the long term, this move could help limit the continued decline in Vietnam’s coffee output in the coming years.
Forecasting coffee prices for the next crop year, industry insiders believe that from October onwards, prices will be more stable and not fluctuate as strongly as recently, and the market will also stabilize again. However, prices will be set at a new, very high level, around 4,000 USD/ton, equivalent to Vietnamese raw coffee costing 90-100 million VND/ton, and will not fall any lower.
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