World coffee prices will be more "lively", ETF funds are dominating the exchanges, is the downward trend dominating?

In 2024, it is estimated that Vietnam will export 1.32 million tons of coffee with a total turnover of nearly 5.48 billion USD, down 18.8% in volume but up 29.1% in value compared to 2023. In the first three months of the new crop year 2024-2025, the export volume was only 50% of the same period last year, according to Vicofa.

Coffee price today 1/7/2025

World coffee prices adjusted slightly in the first trading session of this week. Robusta coffee prices regained momentum after a sharp decline last weekend.

Domestic coffee prices have temporarily adjusted after a sharp decline, currently trading in the range of 120,000 - 120,500 VND/kg. This year's domestic harvest has been delayed after prolonged unseasonal rains, as well as being affected by a tropical depression in the southern sea.

Experts predict that this week, the market is likely to be more active after two quiet weeks due to long holidays in many countries. Meanwhile, investors are waiting for important US economic information to be released this week.

However, they also said that the ETF funds are dominating the coffee and cocoa exchanges, so the scenario of a few hundred dollars of increase or decrease is increasingly tense. The depreciation of the Brazilian Real is obvious, but it is not certain that it will affect the prices on the two coffee exchanges as before, because exporters and growers often sell heavily. They sell and there are many goods, but there are not many sellers on the exchanges because importers and exporters avoid the exchanges because of the large price fluctuations.

Robusta coffee prices are also expected to face difficulties. Last weekend, robusta coffee prices rose to a two-week high due to concerns that heavy rains in Vietnam would disrupt the harvest. However, technically, robusta prices are showing signs of reversing downwards. Specifically, at the two commodity exchanges, speculators are still holding large short-buy contracts and standard inventories are increasing. Overall, the downward trend is dominant.

However, according to the Coffee - Cocoa Association (Vicofa), it is predicted that in the first months of 2025, the amount of coffee exported from Vietnam will hardly break through to maintain the turnover results of 2024. Usually in the first quarter of each year, the export volume is very large and plays a decisive role in the total turnover of the year.

Domestic coffee prices closed the trading session on January 6 up 100 - 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: Braziliancoffee)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on January 6, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London exchange for delivery in March 2025 increased slightly by 16 USD, trading at 4,984 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 increased by 3 USD, trading at 4,900 USD/ton. Average trading volume.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York exchange fluctuated, with the March 2025 delivery period down 0.4 cents, trading at 318.25 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery period increased 0.25 cents, trading at 315.15 cents/lb. Average trading volume.

Domestic coffee prices closed the trading session on January 6 up 100 - 200 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,223	0
DAK LAK	120,500	+ 200
LAM DONG	120,000	+ 200
GIA LAI	120,300	+ 100
DAK NONG	120,500	0

(Source: giacaphe.com)

In 2024, the New York arabica market ended up 69.8% YTD, reaching a 47-year high since 1977, hitting 347.35 US cents/lb in December.

This rally is driven by a number of factors, mainly concerns about ongoing production shortages, shipping disruptions, climate impacts in major producing countries such as Brazil and Vietnam, production prospects for 2024-25 and potential for 2025-26, as well as speculative sentiment related to the geopolitical and macroeconomic backdrop.

The London robusta futures market also recorded a record high in 2024, reaching $5,728/ton in November, with an increase of 71.59% from the beginning of 2024 to December 31.

For now, the dollar remains strong, at least initially, as President-elect Donald Trump takes office. Shipping remains a concern, with no signs of abating. Speculators are still holding large short positions and benchmark inventories are rising.

However, it should be noted that 2024 has actually been a “golden year” for Vietnam’s coffee exports, reaching an unprecedented record in value. Coffee export revenue is expected to exceed $5 billion, even approaching the value of rice exports. According to analysts at StoneX, the outlook for this year remains positive despite the current difficulties. Vietnam’s coffee harvest is expected to be good.

While the forecast for the delayed but improving harvest season could lead to lower crop estimates, the average estimate for Vietnam’s October 2024-September 2025 coffee crop year is still around 28 million bags, according to I. & M. Smith.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-712025-gia-ca-phe-the-gioi-se-soi-dong-hon-quy-etf-dang-chi-phoi-cac-san-da-giam-dang-chiem-uu-the-299947.html