World coffee prices surged, robusta returned to the $5,000 mark, experts predict the direction of exports in 2025?

Coffee price today 1/3/2025

World coffee prices turned green across the board, rising sharply on both the London and New York exchanges.

Domestic coffee prices remained stable despite the New Year holidays on trading floors compared to previous days. Domestically, the harvest is entering its final stages, but sales have decreased. Some of the reasons for this situation are unfavorable weather conditions that cause coffee to ripen later, affecting harvesting and drying. This year, prices of other agricultural products such as durian, pepper, areca nuts, etc. have all increased in recent times, many farmers have abundant incomes so they do not need to sell coffee immediately, leading to a shortage of goods on the market.

The world market in the first days of the year is being strongly affected by many factors. Notably, the USD is still strong, reaching its highest level in more than 2 years, and is expected to be at least in the early days of Mr. Trump's second return to the White House. Along with geopolitical conflicts, some of the latest developments show that maritime transport is still a concern and shows no signs of decreasing.

Meanwhile, for now, speculators are still holding large short contracts and the rising standard inventory are developments that will impact the market in the coming days. On the floor, speculators are likely to continue to increase liquidation sales to lock in profits after a year of good coffee growth. According to comunicaffe, activities in both coffee futures markets were also relatively limited this week due to the impact of the New Year holiday.

Good rains were reported in Brazil, particularly in Minas Gerais state, where abundant rains last week helped replenish water supplies and moisten soils. Meanwhile, certified arabica stocks hit a new two-and-a-half-year high of 991,080 bags. All of these factors point to a near-term bearish bias.

In 2024, the Vietnamese coffee industry will make a record when export turnover reaches 5.2 billion USD, surpassing the 5 billion USD mark for the first time in history. High export prices are the main factor leading to this success, although export volume is down 14% compared to 2023. In the short term, unseasonal rains in the last weeks of the year have affected coffee harvesting and processing. According to sources, 20-30% of the output has not been harvested yet and there are concerns that the rain could affect the quality of coffee beans.

Domestic coffee prices closed the trading session on January 2, 2025 almost unchanged in some key purchasing localities, only increasing slightly in Dak Lak by 100 VND/kg. (Source: Kitco)

According to World & Vietnam , at the end of the trading session on January 2, 2025, the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London for delivery in March 2025 continued to decrease by 46 USD, trading at 4,875 USD/ton. The delivery in May 2025 decreased by 50 USD, trading at 4,805 USD/ton. Trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York floor also decreased, with the March 2025 delivery period decreasing by 1.25 cents, trading at 319.75 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the May 2025 delivery period decreased by 2.1 cents, trading at 314.85 cents/lb. Average trading volume.

Domestic coffee prices closed the trading session on January 2, 2025 almost unchanged in some key purchasing localities, only slightly increasing in Dak Lak by 100 VND/kg. Unit: VND/kg

Average price	Medium
USD/VND exchange rate	25,229	+ 8
DAK LAK	119,500	+ 100
LAM DONG	118,700	0
GIA LAI	119,400	0
DAK NONG	119,500	0

(Source: giacaphe.com)

Coffee prices have been rising for quite some time, now reaching an all-time high according to Trading Economics . The global coffee market is at a major crossroads as it enters 2025, with unpredictable developments from supply, weather, to currency fluctuations. Will coffee prices continue to rise or is this a time for adjustment?

Coffee prices are expected to remain high in 2025, with significant volatility due to climate disruptions, supply chain challenges and changing demand dynamics. Both the arabica and robusta markets face tight supply conditions, ensuring strong prices in the short to medium term.

The coffee market in 2025 is forecast to remain vibrant, with a mix of risks and opportunities. Factors such as weather, currency fluctuations, and global supply and demand will determine the direction of coffee prices in the coming year. With many potential uncertainties, coffee is likely to continue to be one of the most notable commodities in the global commodity market.

However, in the long term, according to some analysts, the market could fall into a deficit for the fifth consecutive year, leading to further increases in coffee prices in 2025. The outlook for the global coffee market in the new year is not very positive, with output expected to decline in both leading producers, Brazil and Vietnam.

According to some analysts, the market could fall into a deficit for the fifth consecutive year – an unprecedented situation that could lead to further increases in coffee prices.

According to some experts, for Arabica coffee, a disappointing harvest in Brazil could push prices even higher, hovering around 400 to 500 cents. Not only are raw material and fuel prices rising, increasing production costs, but transportation is also facing many difficulties due to skyrocketing shipping rates at times. Competitive pressure in the industry is increasing, as businesses face higher input costs for production. At the same time, businesses must ensure that selling prices remain competitive in the international market.

Source: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-312025-gia-ca-phe-the-gioi-vut-tang-manh-me-robusta-tro-lai-moc-5000-usd-chuyen-gia-du-bao-huong-di-cua-hang-xuat-khau-2025-299518.html