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| Pepper price today November 7, 2023, market stagnant, capital flow diverted, businesses reduce orders. (Source: Times of India) |
Pepper price today, November 7, 2023 in the domestic market remained stable in some key localities, trading from 65,500 - 68,000 VND/kg.
Specifically, pepper price today in Gia Lai is at 65,500 VND/kg.
Pepper prices today in Dong Nai province (66,000 VND/kg); Dak Nong, Dak Lak (67,000 VND/kg); Binh Phuoc (67,500 VND/kg) and Ba Ria - Vung Tau are at the highest level of 68,000 VND/kg.
Domestically, agricultural capital is being drawn to coffee as the early harvest season begins in the Central Highlands. The capital is shifting while exports have not improved, causing the domestic pepper market to continue to stagnate and decline for the past two weeks.
However, compared to the same period last year, domestic pepper prices are 8,000 - 9,000 VND/kg higher. According to the general assessment of businesses, the 2024 pepper crop will decrease by about 10-15%, with an estimated harvest output of 160,000-165,000 thousand tons.
This year, pepper output is around 190,000 tons. However, export figures for the past 10 months have reached 230,000 tons, far exceeding this year's output.
With the expected 2024 output decreasing and having to export for another 4 months until the new pepper crop is available, there is not much left in domestic inventory this year. Therefore, looking at the long term, experts all believe that the increase is certain, but the timing will be at the end of this year, or February next year - when the harvest season begins. If foreign customers buy now, the price will increase gradually until the harvest season begins. If foreign customers buy when Vietnam enters the harvest season, the price will increase sharply right at the harvest time.
Currently, importers are not in a hurry to replenish their pepper reserves, which are still at safe levels. The rising US dollar and global inflation have reduced demand for spices in general and pepper in particular. At the most recent monthly meeting, the Vietnam Pepper and Spice Association also stated that due to the impact of the economic crisis, this is the first business year in which many businesses in the Association have seen a reduction in orders for the entire year.
In the first months of 2023, most major economies in the world reduced pepper imports due to low consumption demand. Economic recession, persistently high inflation, and geopolitical tensions are believed to be the reasons why pepper consumption demand will not improve in the last months of this year.
According to the European Union's statistical agency (Eurostat), the EU imported pepper from the world in the first 6 months of 2023 reaching 200.52 million EUR (equivalent to 211.7 million USD), down 25.1% over the same period last year.
The downward trend continued in July 2023, down 16.8% compared to July 2022, reaching 34.8 million EUR (equivalent to 36.7 million USD). In particular, the EU sharply reduced pepper imports from Vietnam.
Vietnam's pepper market share in the EU's total import turnover from the world accounted for 30.05% in the first 6 months of 2023 and accounted for 31.39% in July 2023.
According to the US International Trade Commission, in the first 6 months of 2023, the country imported pepper from the world at 155.6 million USD, down 30.3% compared to the same period last year. The downward import trend continued in July and August, down 28.2% and 38.1% respectively compared to the same period last year.
It is forecasted that in the fourth quarter of 2023, the world pepper market will not really improve. Pepper consumption demand in major economies such as the EU, the United States, China, etc. remains low. Only in 2024 will the world pepper market be able to recover.
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