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Gold prices increase slightly, Fed stops raising interest rates is not necessarily good news, sell-off wave "knocks on the door"

Báo Quốc TếBáo Quốc Tế14/06/2023

Gold prices today, June 15, 2023, increased slightly thanks to the US dollar turning down. Experts say that the price of precious metals may decrease if the Fed stops raising interest rates.

LIVE UPDATE TABLE OF GOLD PRICE TODAY 6/15 AND EXCHANGE RATE TODAY 6/15

1. SJC - Updated: June 14, 2023 15:17 - Website time of supply source - / Compared to yesterday.
Type Buy Sell
SJC 1L, 10L 66,550 ▲50K 67,150 ▲50K
SJC 5c 66,550 ▲50K 67,170 ▲50K
SJC 2c, 1c, 5c 66,550 ▲50K 67,180 ▲50K
SJC 99.99 gold ring 1 chi, 2 chi, 5 chi 55,600 56,550
SJC 99.99 gold ring 0.5 chi 55,600 56,650
Jewelry 99.99% 55,450 56,150
Jewelry 99% 54,394 55,594
Jewelry 68% 36,336 38,336
Jewelry 41.7% 21,567 23,567

World gold prices rose slightly in the last trading session on June 14, thanks to a slight decrease in the US dollar. This made gold - an asset priced in the greenback - more attractive to foreign buyers.

According to TG&VN , at 7:00 p.m. on June 14, the world gold price on the Kitco exchange was at 1,947.5 - 1,948.5 USD/ounce, up 4.2 USD compared to the previous trading session.

Gold lost value after the US released consumer price index (CPI) in line with forecasts.

The US CPI in May 2023 increased by 4%, reaching the smallest annual increase in more than two years, becoming a sign to reinforce investors' view that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will pause its monetary tightening policy.

In response to the above information, European and American stock markets increased simultaneously. This means that money has poured into stocks, causing purchasing power on the world gold exchanges to slow down. Today's gold price is facing a difficult situation.

However, compared to the 2% inflation target set by the agency, this figure is still double, especially when core inflation increased by 5.3%, showing that underlying price pressures are still very strong.

In the Asian market, gold prices increased slightly on the afternoon of June 14 thanks to the depreciation of the USD and data showing that US inflation continued to slow in May 2023, in line with market expectations. This further reinforced speculation that the Fed will temporarily suspend interest rate hikes at this week's policy meeting.

The FedWatch tool just released the survey results showing that investors "bet" a 95.4% chance that the Fed will keep the interest rate in the range of 5-5.25%. This result is nearly 20% higher than the result at the end of last week.

As of 1 p.m. (Vietnam time), spot gold prices increased 0.3% to $1,948.49/ounce, while US gold futures prices increased 0.2% to $1,961.7/ounce.

Domestic gold prices closed the trading session on June 14 increasing in line with world gold prices. SJC gold prices on the Hanoi market were listed by Saigon Jewelry Company at VND66.45 - 67.05 million/tael (buy-sell).

Giá vàng hôm nay 15/6/2023
Gold price today June 15, 2023: Gold price increased slightly, Fed stopping interest rate hike is not necessarily good news, sell-off wave 'knocks on the door' (Source: Kitco)

Summary of SJC gold prices at major domestic trading brands at the closing time of the trading session on June 14:

Saigon Jewelry Company listed the price of SJC gold at 66.55 - 67.17 million VND/tael.

Doji Group currently lists SJC gold price at: 66.40 - 67.00 million VND/tael.

Phu Quy Group listed at: 66.45 - 67.05 million VND/tael.

PNJ system listed at: 66.45 - 67.00 million VND/tael.

SJC gold price at Bao Tin Minh Chau is listed at: 66.46 - 67.10 million VND/tael; Rong Thang Long gold brand is traded at 55.67 - 56.56 million VND/tael; jewelry gold price is traded at 55.35 - 56.35 million VND/tael.

Gold waits for Fed to decide direction

Several officials on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), the Fed's policymaking body, said they are considering not raising interest rates this month to give policymakers more time to assess the economic impact of recent banking system stress and recent rate hikes.

Clifford Bennett, chief economist at ACY Securities, said the Fed may pause its rate hikes at its June 2023 meeting, but the near-term tightening trend will continue and rates could continue to rise in July.

“The odds that the Fed will stop cutting interest rates for the rest of the year are getting higher. This will cause many investors to withdraw from the gold market later this year and the price of the precious metal may go down,” he added.

Precious metals prices could show sensitivity to the latest US CPI report and weaken if the Fed continues to pause its hawkish policy, according to Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM. A sudden surge could trigger a strong sell-off.

“While markets were expecting the Fed to pause its rate hikes this week, surprise rate hikes from the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of Australia have left investors nervous,” the analyst added.

The biggest short-term risk for gold remains the Fed's monetary policy decision. Markets currently expect the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged.

"A Fed rate hike has been a big drag on prices, so any downside to a rate hike will be short-lived," said Adrian Day, president of Adrian Day Asset Management.



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