The most optimistic scenario for the real estate market in the last 3 months of the year?

The real estate market in the last 3 months of 2024 is forecasted by Dat Xanh Services Economic - Financial - Real Estate Research Institute (Dat Xanh Services - FERI) to have more positive changes, with new supply significantly improved compared to the third quarter of 2024. However, the growth rate and absorption rate will depend on many factors, creating three different scenarios.

Dat Xanh Services experts predict that the supply of new real estate in the last 3 months of the year will increase by about 30%.

Specifically, Mr. Luu Quang Tien, Deputy Director of the Institute for Economic - Financial - Real Estate Research Dat Xanh Service, forecasts that in the ideal scenario, new supply will increase sharply by 40% - 50%, floating interest rates will be at 8% - 9%, selling prices will increase by 10-15% and absorption rate will reach 40-45%. This is the most optimistic scenario, expecting an early recovery of the market.

In the expected scenario, new supply increases by 25-35%, floating interest rates are at 9-11%, selling prices increase by 5-10% and absorption rates reach 35-40%. This is the most feasible scenario, reflecting a more positive improvement in market growth.

Meanwhile, in the challenging scenario, new supply increases by 10% - 20%, floating interest rates reach 10-12%, selling prices increase by 3-5% and absorption rate only reaches 20-25%.

Dat Xanh Services experts predict that new supply in the last 3 months of the year will increase by about 30%, equivalent to more than 11,000 new products from more than 50 new subdivisions/projects across the country. Of which, the apartment type with more than 9,300 new products, accounting for nearly 80% of new supply, continues to lead the market. New supply in the Southern region is expected to have strong growth with nearly 6,500 products, an increase of more than 2.5 times compared to the level of 2,500 products in the third quarter.

“The overall absorption rate of the whole market is expected to increase slightly and reach an average of 35-40%. Lending interest rates may remain low; new laws and regulations are starting to take effect, which is expected to help improve purchasing power. The market will enter its most exciting phase at the end of the year, while supply is expected to improve, bringing more choices to customers,” said Mr. Luu Quang Tien.

Primary selling prices are forecast to increase by an average of 5-10%. In key markets such as Hanoi , Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring areas, a stronger increase is forecast, from 10-20%, mainly in the apartment segment. Secondary selling prices are forecast to continue to increase from 10-15%. Housing rental prices are forecast to remain stable and increase slightly by 5% for the apartment segment.

In the last 3 months of 2024, the expert said that the real estate market is expected to witness many positive changes. Notably, the Government will continue to perfect the legal framework and guiding documents to soon put the Law into practice. In parallel, it will receive opinions from all parties, gradually moving to the implementation, supervision, and coordination stages, creating a more open investment and business environment.

“It is still quite early to conclude that the real estate market has recovered, because recovery takes time and a roadmap. However, with the gradually positive developments, it is completely possible to affirm that real estate has passed the U-shaped bottom, has grown again and continues to show signs of slight growth until the end of 2024, towards more positive development from 2025, and is expected to recover in 2026,” Mr. Luu Quang Tien emphasized.

Source: https://www.congluan.vn/kich-ban-nao-kha-quan-nhat-cho-thi-truong-bat-dong-san-3-thang-cuoi-nam-post316203.html