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Why America Reacted Cautiously to the Wagner Rebellion

VnExpressVnExpress29/06/2023


Without commenting in depth on the Wagner rebellion, the Biden administration has taken a cautious approach to avoid getting into trouble with Russia.

On the surface, the Wagner rebellion in Russia would be a boon for Ukraine and its Western allies, including the United States, as it comes at a time when Kiev is pushing ahead with a long-awaited counteroffensive. However, the United States has responded with caution.

During and after the uprising, US officials said Washington had no role in the incident, insisting it was an internal Russian matter and refusing to comment on whether it would affect the war in Ukraine. President Joe Biden has also expressed a similar cautious attitude.

Biden told reporters on June 26 that the US and NATO had nothing to do with the rebellion in Russia. The US president said he had spoken online with allies over the weekend and they all agreed that they should not make statements or actions that could give Russia "a reason to blame the West."

President Biden and US administration officials also declined to assess how Wagner's rebellion might impact the war in Ukraine, tycoon Yevgeny Prigozhin, or Russia itself.

“It’s too early to tell where this is going,” President Biden said.

US President Joe Biden speaks at the White House on May 17. Photo: AFP

US President Joe Biden speaks at the White House on May 17. Photo: AFP

President Vladimir Putin, in his first public comments on the weekend, said that “Russia’s enemies” hoped the uprising would divide and weaken Russia, but were wrong. He identified the “enemies” as “neo-fascists in Kiev, their Western patrons and many other traitors.”

Foreign Minister Sergay Lavrov said Russia was investigating whether Western intelligence agencies were involved in Prigozhin's rebellion.

On June 24, as Wagner fighters headed toward Moscow, US diplomats contacted their Russian counterparts to emphasize that Washington viewed this as Moscow's internal matter, according to US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller.

Michael McFaul, a former US ambassador to Russia, said President Putin has repeatedly accused the US of secretly meddling in many tumultuous events around the world , including protest movements in former Soviet republics. Now the US and NATO “do not want to be blamed for any attempt to destabilize” Russia, Mr. McFaul said.

Tensions between Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and Russian defense leaders have been escalating throughout the Ukraine conflict, culminating in the June 24 uprising. Prigozhin has sent thousands of fighters from the Ukrainian battlefield into Rostov Oblast, taking control of the Southern Military District headquarters in the city of Rostov-on-Don. Another Wagner force is advancing toward Moscow, while Prigozhin has called for the ouster of Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, a charge the Kremlin has rejected.

Biden’s national security team kept him updated as Wagner forces marched toward Moscow, and President Biden said he had instructed them to “prepare for a range of scenarios” as the uprising unfolded.

Biden did not elaborate on the scenarios, but White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby cited concerns about Russian warnings. Putin and his aides have repeatedly discussed nuclear weapons since launching their campaign in Ukraine 16 months ago, in an effort to deter NATO countries from stepping up support for Kiev.

The US President spoke to his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky over the weekend, affirming his determination to support Kiev. "No matter what happens in Russia, the United States will continue to support Ukraine in defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity," Mr. Biden declared.

The Pentagon on June 27 announced a new $500 million aid package for Ukraine, including armor and ammunition for HIMARS rocket artillery.

US officials earlier this week took great care not to appear supportive of Mr Putin or Mr Wagner in their public comments. “We believe that the Russian people should decide for themselves who their leaders are,” Mr Kirby said.

Wagner's 24 Hours of Rebellion

Wagner's 24 Hours of Rebellion. Video: Nhu Tam - Nam Do - Huyen Vu

The Washington Post reported on June 24 that US intelligence had obtained information two weeks ago indicating that Wagner was planning armed action in Russia. US intelligence at the time did not know the exact nature and timing of Wagner's plans to attack the Russian military, but they had enough information to tell US leaders that "something was going to happen," an unnamed official said.

However, the Biden administration has chosen not to comment on the reports this time, in contrast to warnings about Russia’s plans to invade Ukraine early last year. The US has chosen to stay out of the picture, as Biden said on June 26.

"We have to make sure that Russia does not have a reason to blame the West or NATO. We have made it clear that we have nothing to do with that rebellion and have nothing to do with it," he said.

Thanh Tam (According to AP )



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